PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind

eigen

https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014.

What does the LW community think about this happening for PredictIt in particular, and prediction markets in general?

It means that it's important for prediction markets to operate outside of the reach of the US government. Likely in crypto.

Likely it's better to go for trades in an Euro stable coin than a dollar-based one.

The withdrawal letter claims "The University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of [2014 NAL Letter]", but does not seem to provide any specifics whatsowever on what they think was violated...

I wonder if this has anything to do with Kalshi. The CFTC seems much more eager to go after weirder predictions markets (like Polymarket some time ago) now that it has a legit one.

Seems like the first thing a prediction market should estimate is "when will this prediction market get closed?"

It means that it's important for prediction markets to operate outside of the reach of the US government. Likely in crypto.

Likely it's better to go for trades in an Euro stable coin than a dollar-based one.

I wonder if this has anything to do with Kalshi. The CFTC seems much more eager to go after weirder predictions markets (like Polymarket some time ago) now that it has a legit one.

Seems like the first thing a prediction market should estimate is "when will this prediction market get closed?"