ChristianKl's Comments

LW Coronavirus Agenda Update 4/6
We also achieved the hidden goal of Bill Gates doing exactly what David Manheim suggested and building facilities for the 7 top vaccine candidates, which is the best result for any of these questions so far if you don’t look too closely at causality.

This leaves two questions:

A) How do we speed up vaccine approval, given that the supply is taken care of?

B) What do we want to do with the surplus factories?

Let's start with A. If we want faster vaccine approval, we can have it, if we do our clinical trials faster. If we reduce our safety expectations for our clinical trials we can start human trials sooner. CureVac could likely start their trial much sooner if European regulators wouldn't advice them to wait. Furthermore, we could decrease the trial duration by infecting patients in the trial with the virus.

As far as B goes, we might want to do more vaccination in general. Giving out more BCG vaccines might be a good idea for general health benefits. We should check whether other vaccines have similar positive effects.

Transportation as a Constraint

Even in remote locations in the US power/clean water/sewer aren't expensive enough to get people to want to leave those locations.

The lower cost of lands makes up for it.

Transportation as a Constraint
A physically-active human needs about 3 lbs of food per day. (Modern hikers can probably find lighter calorie-dense foodstuffs, but we’re talking ancient history here.)

2 lbs of beef give you 2500 calories which is enough to survive. Cheese is even higher density. It turns out that for both you need a lot of salt which in turn makes salt very important militarily.

What to draw from Macintyre et al 2015?

The authors published a clarification, in it they recommand:

There are now numerous reports of health workers wearing home made cloth masks, or re-using disposable mask and respirators, and asking for guidance. If health workers choose to work in these circumstances, guidance should be given around the use.
There have been a number of laboratory studies looking at the effectiveness of different types of cloth materials, single versus multiple layers and about the role that filters can play. However, none have been tested in a clinical trial for efficacy. If health workers choose to work using cloth masks, we suggest that they have at least two and cycle them, so that each one can be washed and dried after daily use. Sanitizer spray or UV disinfection boxes can be used to clean them during breaks in a single day. These are pragmatic, rather than evidence-based suggestions, given the situation.
An alarm bell for the next pandemic

When it comes to optimizing the alarm bells it would be good to have a large Google Doc with different crisis, different criteria and then see which criteria are best for early warnings.

An alarm bell for the next pandemic

That's great, and does give me more confidence in the alarm bell being useful.

An alarm bell for the next pandemic

You looked at whether your criteria where reasonable for the crisis this year but that's not enough to tell whether the criteria where positive in this crisis but also how often they were positive in the last two decades.

Without engaging in deep research myself I think there's a good chance that H1N1 triggered the criteria you listed but it would have been a mistake to sell stocks in response.

Seeking opinions on the pros and cons of various telepresence tools

I see no reason to believe from that post that the security is in a different class then the security of most other tools on the market.

Jitsi might be more secure but the first time I tried to have a call with it the server was overloaded.

Someone holding a meeting to run a variolation study might need higher security then Zoom provides but the use-cases I have at the moment don't require high levels of security.

For normal privacy concerns the inability to hide the background in most Zoom alternatives seems to like a lot more privacy relevant data to other people.

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