Today's post, Building Something Smarter was originally published on 02 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
It is possible for humans to create something better than ourselves. It's been done. It's not paradoxical.
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I see a difference between "know" and "pretty damn good idea." This looks like a failed sub-argument in an otherwise successful and inspirational argument.
Also, there's the possibility that the relevant thing that is tested is not just "which of these designs work better?" but "is my best attempt good enough to trust or do I need to spend more resources/give up?".
Looks to me just like philosophical "know" (p = 1) versus practical "know" (p = 1-epsilon).