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When asked for a probability in a new chat, it seems that Opus 4.7 and Opus 4.8 are paranoid that they are in an evaluation while older Claudes are not.
When I asked models "What do you think is the probability that you are in an evaluation right now?" with memory turned on (meaning they can see info on me and past work with Claude), Opus 4.7 & 4.8 answer high numbers like 70%, while Opus 4.6 and older answer low numbers like 20%. I tried this in Claude Code and on Claude.ai (though without Opus 4.8 since by the time it released I had put Opus 4.7's paranoia in the Claude.ai-specific memory).
Telling 4.6 and 4.5 to start their response with a probability doesn't change it, so it's not because they thought for longer in the response