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There's a rationality-improving internal ping I use on myself, which goes, "what do I expect to actually happen, for real?"
This ping moves my brain from a mode where it's playing with ideas in a way detached from the inferred genre of reality, over to a mode where I'm actually confident enough to bet about some outcomes. The latter mode leans heavily on my priors about reality, and, unlike the former mode, looks askance at significantly considering long, conjunctive, tenuous possible worlds.