You can collateralize Bitcoin, and that is really where Bitcoin's future lies, its collateral to recapitalize the financial system. The dynamics of QE operate like an auto-immune disease, its making collateral harder to come by, debt instruments become MORE expensive, because the Fed is effectively bidding up the price. However, this creates a new paradigm where all assets are higher in value than where they should be, if we're operating in a normal interest rate environment (by normal, one that doesn't have massive Central Bank interference to effectively fix the market rates). This is why we have such a monopolized economy as well, it makes borrowing costs cheaper for those with the best ability to access credit. Thus, all assets become too expensive. This leads to extreme inequality because few people under 40 can afford to have normal things people want, and leads to this extractive economy we operate in. This also becomes impossible to reverse too because the Fed raising the interest rate leads to a market crash (as they found out in 2018, nearly collapsing the entire stock market).
You need a way to unwind this dynamic because like an auto-immune disease, you're attacking healthy cells (small businesses, who can't access credit, or get priced out of competing against would-be monopolists, as well as zombie corporations who just exist in perpetuity rolling over their debt, 20% of US corporations on the stock market are now zombified).
So, Bitcoin operates within the monetary reality of the world today, whereas so many other cryptos are trying to design something new, innovative or fantastical, none of them are obviously better for this absolute contorted situation we find ourselves in. It can become the new version of collateral, so that the Fed can release the pressure valve of perpetual QE, and allow them to unwind without mass bankruptcy of the US economy. However, this is another conundrum, because Bitcoin's deflationary attributes also make for a more appealing settlement layer than what its actually competing against, which is the Fed. This is ultimately what many technologists misunderstand, Bitcoin is more like a first order layer of money, to clear transactions at the highest level. It's more comparable to Fedwire or other various Federal Reserve settlement layers.
I have been thinking a lot about the crypto autopsy Scott posted in 2018. In retrospect, there was still an enormous amount of money to be made 'buying the dip' in BTC/ETH. And there was even more money to be made buying altcoins. Scott also links to this thread from 2015 strongly advising people to buy bitcoin at around $230 (so approximately 250x gains on the percent you held). The earlier bitcoin discussion on lesswrong might have represented an even more lucrative opportunity but this is some of the best completely explicit advice ever posted on the forum:
As I am writing the thread itself has four upvotes. Conversely, the following comment has twenty-six (this thread long predates variable weight votes though we can still vote on it going forward)
This seems like a really strong indictment of the community's collective rationality. On the other hand, I have been posting some financial advice threads on lesswrong. I have posted much more advice on rationalist adjacent facebook and discord. People listen. I frequently get messages from people telling me they made money thanks to my posts. Several friends of mine got into Solana around $2.50 at the same time and have made six or seven figures from that investment. A few people got in later or for smaller amounts and still made meaningful amounts of money (Solana is no longer a truly amazing investment but it's still worth buying/holding). Villiam's comment is important to keep in mind:
It is very hard to grok how context people are missing. You need to make it as easy as possible for people to follow your advice. And you need to tell them a real plan. Many of us held a lot of bitcoin at one point or another. Just buying bitcoin was not enough, you needed to stick to a plan for selling. I personally like 'sell 20% at every doubling' for volatile investments. Give people the tools to succeed. A good friend of mine wanted to get into Solana for a few thousand dollars but found it difficult to buy. He is out tens of thousands of dollars because I did not make it easier for him to buy. He really could use that money.
Am I now become your enemy, because I tell you the truth? - Galatians 4:16
The problem is that the more explicit you are the more pushback you should expect to receive. If you just explore a topic and 'hint hint' at your advice you won't expose yourself to the same types of criticisms. You don't need much plausible deniability to shield yourself. However, you cannot shield yourself very much if you are giving step-by-step instructions and making clear claims. We should take trivial inconveniences very seriously. Therefore we must not add any unnecessary friction.
My advice is to accept that 'haters are gonna hate' and just take the hit. Make your arguments as clear and your advice as easy to follow as possible. But understand that no matter what you do, if you tell people to buy bitcoin at $230, the top comment might be critical. Some people will listen and benefit.
As a group, we should really be taking Aumannian reasoning and noticing confusion more seriously. If something very interesting is going on we need to stop and think and come to a logical conclusion. Obviously, not everyone is going to agree. But at least smaller groups should be able to 'Stop, Drop and Think'. I hope we can do better as a group but if we cannot, or you leave lesswrong, at least Stop, Drop and Think when you notice a potential opportunity. The rewards for making the right choices can be enormous.
This post mostly argues in favor of sharing your well-thought-out positions. But another implication of 'people will listen' is that you should not give advice flippantly. Don't quickly fire off conventional wisdom. If you have not thought through your counsel make sure you make this clear. Of course, if you have thought things out I strongly suggest speaking your mind.
There is a season for all things and this seems like a season for thinking about crypto. However, I think pretty much every season is for thinking about money. Money is instrumentally useful for the vast majority of goals. If you want to 'win' you should probably think at least a little about money. But I also think these principles extend across domains and are not limited to financial decisions.