Arguably EA/Rationality needed much simpler and less nuanced messaging on how to deal with aI capabilities companies. We really should have gone with 'absolutely do not help or work for companies increasing ai capabilities. Only work directly on safety.' Nuance is cool and all but the nuanced messaging arguably just ended up enabling Anthropic and OpenAI.
FWIW Im very angry about what happened and I think the speedup was around five years in expectation.
If this goes through I would strongly advise you to buy MSFT stock. I bought a ton when the possible deal was announced.
Any kind of contact sport is lunacy. Even non-contact sports like track can hurt your joints if you aren't careful. Basketball is bad for your knees, etc. I would tell my kids if they want to exercise: swim or jog on sand. If they want to have fun play video games or have sex (bang in your bedroom at any age). I don't believe in being coercive but I hope my child would trust me enough they wouldn't even consider playing football or heading a soccer ball.
https://twitter.com/DickgirlsR/status/1599693592125394945
MSFT - 10%
INTEL - 10%
Nvidia - 15%
SMSN - 15%
Goog - 15%
ASML - 15%
TSMC - 20%
Updated my 'diversified' portfolio for this:
MSFT - 10%
INTEL - 10%
Nvidia - 15%
SMSN - 15%
Goog - 15%
ASML - 15%
TSMC - 20%
It doesn't seem to be the safest to be too sure how the future will go. Id recommend hedging for whatever possibilities you can.
FWIW this is around the amount of progress I was expecting in 2016. For better or worse I updated very hard toward very short timelines once alphago was released in 2015. Amusingly at the time I figured we had 10-20 years until strong AGI, which gives an average of 2030. I prefer to say strong AGI since as far as I'm concerned publicly available AGI was released in late 2022.