deluks917

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Are bread crusts healthier?

I usually cut the crust off my bread! It is way tastier that way. 

The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

These leverage tokens do not behave how they should. Very few if any people should use them. But Binance did not lose use funds. If you were doing perp-spot arbitrage on Binance you were not at any risk.

note: the future-spot arb has indeed dried up.

Why do patients in mental institutions get so little attention in the public discourse?

People, by default, do not care very much about the suffering of the powerless. This is a very general pattern: De facto torture of the old and dying (Who by Very Slow Decay), Animal in factory farms, prisoners in solitary, Scott's rant about school being child prison, etc. 

There is no real need to explain a specific example of a very general trend. In fact it is the opposite that needs explanation. We actually have made progress in various ways (for example slavery is greatly reduced, though the USA still has prisoner slaves). But compassion toward the powerless is a deviation from the default. We need to fight for it. The fight has not been won in the USA.

Violating the EMH - Prediction Markets

Update. I exited the oly bet 2 days ago at 87.2 percent. Just letting people know.

The BTC equilibriumating and the ETH one-eightening

I am holding some eth. Hope this timeline happens. But color me skeptical. 20k eth seems doable though. I think we probably cross 20k if eth 2.0 and optimism both perform well.

We should probably buy ADA?

Cardano has been very Too weak Too Slow. They have a giant valuation but they still haven't launched smart contracts! The coin launched in 2017, so they had plenty of time to work. Despite this they have the fourth-highest valuation! (excluding stablecoins). This situation seems crazy to me on fundamentals. Of course, they probably will pump once smart contracts launch. But despite having most of my net worth in crypto I am not buying Cardano.

deluks917's Shortform

Explicit YOLO ALL IN numbers for my biggest bags. Until we hit these numbers I am not shoving everything:

Sol - 8 

Matic - 0.3 

FTT - 7.5 

ETH - 500 

BTC - 12K

Remember in 2018 ETH went 1400->89 and it wasn't all downhill. Lower highs, lower lows. Be ready for the opportunity.

New Magic Post: The Pro Tour Was Magic

The early Pro Tour seemed amazing. When I followed the pro your ten years ago it was still extremely interesting. But I started interest years before the MPL. They have continually de-emphasized draft. They killed Rochestor draft in ~2005. Then they got rid of the all draft pro tours in 2008. In 2020 they completely removed draft from 'players tours'. 

De-emphasizing draft was bad enough. But the real death kneel was when they moved the Pro/Player's Tours so far back from set release. I am not sure exactly when they started doing this but it feels like it was a few years ago. For a long time, the PT was around two weeks after the set released. Players were incentivized to form testing houses. Usually, the format was still fresh by the time the Pro Tour rolled around. As I recall sometimes sets were even delayed a little on MTGO which helped a bit. If anything the PT should have been a little closer to set release but ~2 weeks worked well. Now the Pro Tours are usually stale formats. Sometimes exciting stuff comes out. But ever since they moved the PTs so far back I have lost interest.

For many reasons, I don't play serious magic. But I have been a fan and player for many years. I am very sad about what happened to the Pro Tour.

deluks917's Shortform

I have been saying this on other forums (where more people listen to me) for over a week but I might as well post it here too:

I have been pushing crypto quite hard. I do NOT recommend buying crypto until momentum reverses. If taxes and bankroll were not relevant I would say buying and selling are probably close to equivalent with a slight preference to selling. Of course, this means I put a decent probability on a quick recovery but I am not betting on it. Make sure you have at least some dry powder for the deep bear market if it comes. I hope you took some profits on the way up to fund this. But if not sell off your momentum plays and keep some post-tax money to buy the real dip.  Otherwise, hold. Maybe momentum will reverse but it's dangerous to buy this dip unless you have a ton of dry powder. You need to conserve for the real winter if it comes. Almost no one is capable of continually buying the 'dip' with their paychecks for months while losing money. Preserve your USDC.

Good luck friends!

Thoughts on Ad Blocking

The people who make ad blockers have improved my life enormously. It's worth noting Facebook timeline ads are not particularly annoying. Maybe forcing sites to mask their ads as content is a good thing.

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