Bet On Biden

by deluks9171 min read17th Oct 202046 comments

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BettingPoliticsPrediction Markets
Personal Blog

At this point, for many tax situations, you cannot rationally believe both 'Nate Silver is credible' and 'I should not be betting on Biden'. If you have any trust in Nate you cannot think Biden is below ~80% to win. You can get 'Biden' for 65-66c on Predictit. Notably, there are several de facto copies of the same bet (Female VP, Dems win presidency). Even with fees, you are making a lot of stochastic money. Your capital will probably not be held up that long. 

If you are outside the USA you can plausibly get even better odds. There are many places you can get implied odds of 62-63%. This bet gets worse if you are paying tons of income tax and cannot offset losses. But this is a very good bet for lots of people.

Polling Averages

I edited in an image of the rolling polling averages so people can judge this for themselves.

Here is another good analysis of why we should be confident in Biden.

In general, I think Rationalists should be a lot 'louder' about their advice when they are sure. For many tax situations, this is a complete slam dunk. I really wish rationalists had been louder about similar advice in the past when I could benefit.

Contest Entrants Think Trump is Going to Lose

Of the 98 entries, only six said that the Democratic candidate was under 50c to win the presidency. In fact, the median predicted probability for the Democratic candidate (hereafter Biden, for brevity) among contest entrants was 87%; notably, the median probability given by the models out there is also 87% (though Nate Silver has yet to release his and based on his fights with G. Elliott Morris it’s probably not going to come in very high).

This confidence in Biden (he is “Likely” to win the presidency, in the parlance of verbal handicappers) isn’t shared by the markets. Both BetFair and PredictIt price Joe in the low 60s, suggesting that the presidency “Leans” Biden (the price ranges on PI depending on the market you’re looking at). Even Silver thinks that’s too low: “I don’t think people realize how dumb and sometimes even irrational the prices are at political betting markets as compared to almost every other type of market (which is not to say other markets are always rational, either).” and “Too low on Biden.”

Note: My claims are completely orthogonal to whether Biden should win. Rationalists, in general, have some faith in Nate Silver and similar analysis. This post is about the logical conclusion of that faith. Please do not discuss the merits of which candidate is better for the country.

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