Based on my experiences in the rationalist community as well as the work of Tetlock and others in superforecasting, I was inspired to build something I've been wanting for a long time: an epistemic status tracker.

In its simplest form, it's a tool for making predictions, logging Bayesian updates, and analyzing your forecasting abilities. 

While Metaculus and other prediction markets are great for world events, making predictions about more obscure events is also key to developing intuition—I've resorted to logging these in my journal (in a format similar to Scott Alexander's), but this was always an imperfect solution.

Below are some sketches for the most basic version of the mobile app:

Of course, this is a personal, not-for-profit project that I'll be open-sourcing.

I've thought about including social features (e.g., friends can take the over or under on your predictions) and analytics (particularly the classic calibration chart).

Most of all, I'm hoping to hear feedback from other community members: what would you want to see included?

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6 comments, sorted by Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 2:11 PM

Personally I'd suggest adding a way to import/export to either json or csv (e.g. to enable power users to do bulk edits or stats/charts in excel). Tags (or categories) might be useful once the number of predictions is above 50 or so. Will it be available on Android?

How does it compare to PredictionBook?

Quite similar!

Having a prediction tracker on mobile is a big deal for me; predictions come up at unexpected times and sometimes it's a hassle to log in to a web app. Just a personal preference.

How do you imagine you will enter text into the app? Using on on-screen keyboard?

Yes, exactly. Wasn't shown on the wireframes but each field would cause a keyboard (QWERTY, numerical, dates, etc.) to pop up, depending on context.

Interesting. I am also curious what size of screen do you imagine (plan on) this keyboard being on? One of smartphone size?

I am surprised at how much text you are willing to enter on one's on-screen keyboard if indeed you are planning to use this app on a smartphone. (I don't own a smartphone, but am curious about them.)