How does one express how confident or uncertain about a probability estimate one is, in numeric terms?
Consider some different situations where you might have 50% confidence in a "yes" answer to a question:
These are all things where you might assign a 50% probability, but you'd probably be more confident in some of your answers than others, and that confidence depends on your knowledge in the area. How do we express this difference in confidence?
Here are some possible ways I've thought of:
I don't have an answer for you, as this is also something I'm confused about. I felt bad seeing 0 answers here, so I just wanted to mention that I asked about this on Manifold and got some interesting discussion, see here:
Thanks for setting this up :)