As I've pointed out before, people saying "insects suffer X% as much as humans" or even "there's a Y% chance that insects are able to suffer" tells you more about the kind of numbers that people pick when picking small numbers, than it tells you about insect suffering. Most people are not good enough at picking appropriately small numbers and just pick something smaller than the numbers they usually see every day. Which isn't small enough. If they actually picked appropriately sized numbers instead of saying "if there's even a 1% chance", you could do the calculations in this article and figure out that insect suffering should be ignored.
The first half of this seems true (the estimates are quite arbitrary), but I don't get why you're confident about the second half. What makes your estimate of the "appropriately sized numbers" less arbitrary and more plausible?
Since ordinary people don't think insect suffering matters, if they pick a number that is high enough that it implies the opposite, it presumptively is too high. This doesn't prove it's too high, but if they are bad at picking numbers and they picked a number inconsistent with their other beliefs, we should presume that the number isn't correct, not that the other belief is incorrect.
I think this depends on the assumptions that a) ordinary people have a considered belief that insect suffering doesn't matter, and b) this belief depends on the belief that insects don't suffer (much).
If most people just haven't given any serious thought to insect suffering, and the main reason they tend to act like it doesn't matter is because that's the social default, then their numerical estimates (which are quite arbitrary, but plausibly based on more thought than they've ever previously given to the question) might be at least as good a guide to the ground truth as their prior actions are.
And if someone doesn't care about insect suffering, not because they're confident that insects don't experience non-trivial suffering but because they simply don't care about insects (perhaps because they don't instinctively feel empathy for insects, they find insects annoying, they know insects spread disease, etc.), then the apparent conflict between their indifference and their estimates is extremely weak evidence against the accuracy of their estimates.
It seems to me that if you go through a reasoning process like what Rethink Priorities did for its moral weights project, then it's hard to come up with sufficiently small numbers that shrimp welfare looks unimportant.
If you think people are doing a bad job of picking small numbers, then what numbers do you think they should pick instead, and what's your reasoning?
Rethink Priorities does calculations using made up numbers which, of course, have the same problem. 1% for the likelihood that insects are sentient is absurdly generous.
what numbers do you think they should pick instead
I have no idea. But I know that the ones you have aren't it.
Second: insects plausibly can suffer a great deal. The most detailed report ever compiled on the subject estimated that they suffer at least 1% as intensely as we do, and on average around 10%.
That report continues to be unable to support the arguments you are using it for.
To southern slave-owners, the permissibility of slavery was intuitive. But this was only as a result of bias and a profound failure of empathy. They only considered things from their own perspectives, never thinking about what it would be like to be a tormented and subjugated slave. Had they done so, they’d have correctly judged slavery to be the abomination it was.
Are these claims that you’re making about the psychology of slave-owners the result of any reading of primary sources? Or have you done some other sort of historical research into the pre-Civil-War period of American history that informed this portrayal? Could you comment a bit on your sources for this?
Yeah, I suspect that owning slaves was about as intuitive as taking a vacation on Epstein's island. The rich people did it because they could -- not because they studied moral philosophy and concluded from the first principle that slavery is good, but because they knew they could get away with it.
But if there’s even a 1% chance that they suffer 20% as intensely as we do, then insect suffering is still, in expectation, responsible for nearly all of the world’s extreme suffering.
Suppose there's an objective morality that we're subjectively uncertain about. A reasonable prior does not put zero mass on the hypothesis that the literally infinite characters in our stories are moral patients. A reasonable protocol does not therefore let this hypothesis dominate its decisions regardless of evidence. Aggregate the uncertainty in some other way.
A reasonable prior does not put zero mass on the hypothesis that the literally infinite characters in our stories are moral patients. A reasonable protocol does not therefore let this hypothesis dominate its decisions regardless of evidence.
I do agree that we need some distinction in our decision-making for uncertain ethical problems where a simple expected value is the right solution and uncertain ethical problems where the type of the uncertainty requires handling it differently.
And I do agree that insect suffering is deep enough in the territory of fundamental uncertainty that this question needs to be asked.
When you use the example of "the hypothesis that the literally infinite characters in our stories are moral patients", I could imagine you having several possible aims:
My understanding is that you mean the first two, but not the third?
If there is an objective morality, I also expect an objective method for making decisions under moral uncertainty. Math that is discovered rather than invented does not contain special-case handling.
A reasonable prior puts nonzero mass on any hypothesis its holder can imagine, else they could not be convinced of it. To demonstrate that the content of the hypotheses must not directly touch, I picked a hypothesis that contains an infinity.
So I'd expect that method to naturally handle infinities just like insects or humans, in a way that adds up to normality. As the masses on whether insect lives are net good or net bad oscillate around 10% each, the method shouldn't pivot on a dime between maximizing and minimizing the number of insects, either.
Even if we're not full on fanatics--multiplying probability times magnitude in EV calculations--.2% risks are obviously not worth rounding down to zero. A .2% chance that we were torturing 10^18 people would be the worst thing in the world!
I don't think a child would need log(.2%) bits of evidence to be convinced that story characters matter. I recommend that your aggregation method treat the hypotheses as untrusted user input and therefore bring them to a common format before you let them interact. I see more than one such possible format.
Do you make any distinction between "pain" and "suffering"? I tend to separate them, and I put a lot more weight on suffering, which I think of as an emotional/cognitive experience. Suffering quite plausibly is non-linear in brain-complexity, with more complex beings experiencing it trillions of times more intensely than simpler ones.
I use them both to refer to a kind of unpleasant experience.
While it might be that what you're saying is correct, it's at least plausible that creatures with simple minds--so long as they still perform normal functions--can suffer intensely https://benthams.substack.com/p/betting-on-ubiquitous-pain. So for that reason it's still very bad in expectation.
I’m pretty convinced at this point that qualia comes from systems with a certain level of complexity, or maybe it comes from life. I’m very skeptical of the idea that only humans experience things. I think it’s highly likely that ants have inner lives.
Where you lose me is the assumption that all insects are suffering. I expect that, like people, most of them are going about their day to day. Their lives have meaning to them. Yes, there are a lot being injured right now, but the VAST majority are because they were just going about their day. Life is hard.
To me, your argument breaks down when you take it further. What about the single-cell organisms? They also respond to negative stimulus. I don’t know if the question of suffering of single-cell organisms has really been studied, but even multicellular creatures are essentially colonies of cells of multiple types and even species. Wikipedia says there are about 3x10^13 human cells in a human body, with about that many bacterial cells. Should we be horrified at the desiccation and death of skin cells? The countless bacterial cell you are likely murdering every moment of your life as your cells fend off infection, and so too the cells of yours that die in the effort? Of cancer cells, who just want to live?
These things are a part of nature. Intervening is just picking sides out of preference. It’s okay to have preferences, but they aren’t moral questions.
To bring it back around, I’m with you on preserving habitat, and respecting life. When I find insects in my house that I can catch and release outside, I do. I think we need better regulation on wide-scale insecticide use.
When a mosquito bites me, I’m going to kill it. If they’re living in my home, we’re at war.
Hey, thanks for the interesting perspective. 👋
I think it’s easy to lose perspective when you multiply a really big number by a really small number.
Ustice from the past, I disagree about one point. The preferences you were referring to not being moral questions is wrong. Obviously one could only include humans, or a subset of humans. Including humans in “it’s just nature” is obviously immoral.
The choice of where to draw the line is very much a moral question. At least all humans is a pretty good Schelling point, but after that it there are only a few major points before things get murky, and rational moral minds can disagree.
I don’t believe you meant to be dismissive, but your argument was, and that’s not fair. I apologize on his behalf.
You say that intuitively it makes sense, but don't you think that doing whatever leads you to the best outcomes for yourself is the most intuitive thing (no matter the intense downsides it brings to others), and hence caring about insect suffering which doesn't benefit you is far from intuitive?
To elaborate on "doing whatever leads you to the best outcomes for yourself is the most intuitive thing (no matter the intense downsides it brings to others)" doesn't mean I think that humans or I would commonly do incredibly immoral things to other humans, as that wouldn't benefit them due to the negative feelings doing those immoral things would bring.
I believe that the intuition to do whatever benefits you is the same reason that most people simply don't care about large animals, nevertheless insects.
Most people are like this, although probably not as blunt + use some rationalization (although the exact sentence perfectly describes my take without all the extra fluff I just now mentioned):
"Were the animals that produced the animal products I'm consuming treated wrongly? Probably, but I'm not them so I don't care and I will happily enjoy the food"
I think insect suffering is the worst thing in the world by far. I know it sounds weird! But please hear me out—ideally with an open mind!
Many views seem intuitive but only because of bias. To southern slave-owners, the permissibility of slavery was intuitive. But this was only as a result of bias and a profound failure of empathy. They only considered things from their own perspectives, never thinking about what it would be like to be a tormented and subjugated slave. Had they done so, they’d have correctly judged slavery to be the abomination it was.
I think the same thing is true about insect suffering. People have the strong intuition that it doesn’t matter at all. But when one really reflects, this turns out to be for unreliable and superficial reasons. Insect suffering is genuinely important, and we only neglect it because of bias and irrationality. I think there are four considerations which when considered collectively make vivid the significance of the 10^18 insects presently suffering.
(Note: when I say insect, I’m really talking about plausibly-conscious arthropods—which is a class of very numerous organisms including crabs, shrimp, spiders, and other things that aren’t technically buts—but repeatedly using scientific terms like “arthropod” is lame, so I’m just going to talk about insects.)
Consider first: you shouldn’t directly trust your intuition that insect suffering doesn’t matter. You’re not an insect, you have no natural empathy towards insects, there’s social incentive not to care about insect welfare, and caring about them is inconvenient. Just like you shouldn’t trust the intuitions of white slave owners who have no empathy towards slaves, you shouldn’t trust your own direct intuitions about insects. If you feel no empathy towards a creature for superficial reasons, relating to its size and the way it looks, you’re obviously not in a position to reliably judge its worth.
(Note to stupid people: I am not making a comparison between black people and insects. I am making a broader point about untrustworthy intuitions.)
Second: insects plausibly can suffer a great deal. The most detailed report ever compiled on the subject estimated that they suffer at least 1% as intensely as we do, and on average around 10%. That could, of course, be an underestimate, but it could also be a dramatic overestimate.
If a creature can suffer, to decide how much its interests count, you should imagine yourself in its shoes. Ask yourself: how much would you pay to avoid having to experience a painful death from the perspective of an insect. These creatures potentially suffer quite intensely and often writhe around in agony for hours before eventually succumbing to death. The way they struggle is quite similar to how larger animals do. While they’re small, from their behavior it looks like they suffer intensely. Just as it would be wrong for a giant to assume that you don’t feel intense pain when crushed to death because you’re small, it’s also wrong to assume that about insects.
If insects screamed in volume proportional to their suffering, nothing could be heard over the cries of insects. If you lived the life of every creature who ever lived, you’d spend roughly 100% of your time as an insect. If you were a randomly selected organism placed behind the veil of ignorance, odds are nearly 100% that you’d be an insect. If you empathized more deeply, feeling the pain of all those around you within a 100-mile radius, every other sensation would be drowned out by the agony and pleasures of the insects.
In short, when we empathize with insects, we come to see that they matter.
Third, there are an astonishing number of insects, and they collectively feel an utterly unfathomable quantity of suffering (provided they can suffer). There are about 10^18 insects—100 million for every human. In expectation, human suffering is a rounding error compared to theirs. Every second at least hundreds of billions of insects die. There is something darkly amusing about the fact that holding we should take seriously the hundreds of billions of painful deaths every second is seen as insane and radical!
Even if we assume that the pain of their death is only about as bad as the pain of a human being punched in the face, insect deaths collectively cause about as much suffering as if everyone in the world was punched in the face a hundred times per second. And that’s assuming it takes them only one second to die and ignoring all the rest of their suffering.
In the face of that ocean of agony, we’d need some strong argument for ignoring it. But when you seriously consider what it’s like to be in agony, you can see that it’s bad. As I’ve noted before, there’s no plausible explanation of why human agony is bad that doesn’t imply the agony of other species is bad too.
People often say that our agony is worse because of various cognitive traits we have. We can do calculus, conceptualize of our life as a whole, and reason about morality. But this explanation has two problems:
To avoid these problems, people often suggest that the relevant characteristic that makes our pain important and insect pain unimportant is our species. The babies and mentally enfeebled come from a rational species, and this is why their pain is important. Animals do not, so even when they experience unfathomable amounts of agony, this doesn’t much matter. But this account has huge problems too:
Some people object that we don’t really know if insects suffer. And this is absolutely correct. We can’t be sure. But there’s a sizeable chance they suffer, as international bodies consistently conclude when they investigate this subject. They respond in many ways as if they suffer: responding to anesthetic, nursing their wounds, making tradeoffs between pain and reward, cognitively modeling both risks and reward in decision-making, responding in novel ways to novel experiences, self-medicating, and much more. If you’re not sure if creatures are suffering, then if they’re being harmed by the thousand-quadrillions, that’s pretty serious! Plus I think the evidence makes it more likely they suffer than not.
Others object that just as no mild pains can add up to be as severe as one extreme pain, no amount of insect pain matters as much as intense human pain. But this is dubious.
First of all, we don’t know how intensely insects suffer. The most detailed report on the subject guessed they suffer on average about 5-15% as intensely as we do. Now, if a person experiences something 15% as bad as dying painfully, that’s obviously morally serious. So if insects experience pain that intensely, it doesn’t matter if tiny pains don’t outweigh a few sizeable pains. Insects plausibly don’t just experience tiny, irrelevant pain.
Second, even putting aside these precise estimates, we don’t know much about how intensely insects suffer. We have no very compelling evidence about it. As a result, we shouldn’t assume with high confidence that they don’t suffer intensely. But if there’s even a 1% chance that they suffer 20% as intensely as we do, then insect suffering is still, in expectation, responsible for nearly all of the world’s extreme suffering.
Third, the view that lots of small pains can’t add up to one significant pain is quite philosophically controversial. Many philosophers reject it. But if insect suffering is the worst thing in the world by far on a widely-held philosophical view, then everyone should take it pretty seriously.
My fourth argument for why taking seriously insect welfare is intuitive is that when we modify the real world scenario to remove bias, it seems super obvious. To see this, let’s note a few things.
First, humans aren’t good at comparing big numbers. We display a bias called scope neglect, wherein we don’t intuitively grasp how much bigger a billion is than a million and intuitively regard them as the same. People will pay as much money to save 2,000 birds as 20,000 or 200,000.
To correct against this, instead of comparing the interests of 8 billion humans to 10^18 insects, let’s compare the interests of 100 million insects to one human (for that is the number of insects there are for every person).
Second, we’re biased against insects because they’re small and weird-looking—we don’t naturally empathize with them. To correct against this, let’s imagine that insects looked like people but still had the mental capacities of insects.
100 million is roughly the population of the United States. So now imagine that you were the only normal human in the United States. The other 100 million people (!!!!) were cognitively like insects but in human bodies. While you lived a mostly normal, comfortable life, these creatures were constantly starved to death, eaten alive, and crushed to death by giant creatures. They often writhed around in agony over the course of hours before eventually dying.
These people were, in many ways, like some of the most mentally disabled humans. While they could not speak or display any great intelligence, they still seemed to show signs of pain. When hurt, they would struggle to get away. They responded to anesthetic, made tradeoffs between pain and reward, could learn from others, appeared to get stressed, and seemed, in various other ways, to feel pain.
In such a country where there were 100 million of these humanoids, where every day you witnessed many of them starve in the streets, be crushed or devoured by larger creatures, cry and whimper in pain, and have their blood run out as their corpse is scraped against the pavement, would it be reasonable to think only your interests mattered? That you could do to these creatures as you wish, for their interests are billions of times less important than yours? Would it really be reasonable to see one of these creatures be eaten alive, and think that what happened was of virtually no importance?
Would it be reasonable to hold that these creatures, though they could probably feel pain, though they were probably collectively experiencing a literally unfathomable amount of pain, didn’t matter at all. They were, after all, members of an unintelligent species. Would it be reasonable to think that your problems matter so much more than theirs—that you can run them over with impunity, torment thousands of them in farms before eating them, and treat them as morally valueless robots?
Of course not! If you were the only intelligent human in the United States, and the rest of the country was filled with these creatures, you would not be the locus of nearly all the moral worth in the entire country. Nearly all of what matters in the country wouldn’t be what happened to you, but what happened to them. But insects are as numerous per person as these creatures, and only differ from them in utterly morally irrelevant ways—like how they look.
When one seriously thinks about how perverse it would be to treat these creatures as if they were valueless—to prioritize your own interests over the 100 million beings crying in agony and terror—they have begun to grok the senselessness and immorality of our neglect of insects.
(For what to do once you’re convinced insect suffering is super important, see here).