Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?

Tomás B.

Though, given my doomerism, I think the natsec framing of the AGI race is likely wrongheaded, let me accept the Dario/Leopold/Altman frame that AGI will be aligned with the national interest of a great power. These people seem to take as an axiom that a USG AGI will be better in some way than a CCP AGI. Has anyone written a justification for this assumption?

I am neither an American citizen nor a Chinese citizen.

What would it mean for an AGI to be aligned with "Democracy," or "Confucianism," or "Marxism with Chinese characteristics," or "the American Constitution"? Contingent on a world where such an entity exists and is compatible with my existence, what would my life be like in a weird transhuman future as a non-citizen in each system? Why should I expect a USG AGI to be better than a CCP AGI? It does not seem to me super obvious that I should cheer for either party over the other. And if the intelligence of the governing class is of any relevance to the likelihood of a positive outcome, um, CCP seems to have USG beat hands down.

I am neither an American citizen nor a Chinese citizen.

There are some additional reasons, beyond the question of which values would be embedded in the AGI systems, to not prefer AGI development in China, that I haven't seen mentioned here:

Systemic opacity, state-driven censorship, and state control of the media means AGI development under direct or indirect CCP control would probably be less transparent than in the US, and the world may be less likely to learn about warning shots, wrongheaded decisions, reckless behaviour, etc. True, there was the Manhattan Project, but that was quite long ago; recent examples like the CCP's suppression of information related to the origins of COVID feel more salient and relevant.
There are more checks and balances in the US than in China, which you may think could e.g., positively influence regulation; or if there's a government project, help incentivise responsible decisions there; or if someone attempts to concentrate power using some early AGI, stop that from happening. E.g., in the West voters have some degree of influence over the government, there's the free press, the judiciary, an ecosystem of nonprofits, and so on. In China, the CCP doesn't have total control, but much more so than Western governments do.

I think it's also very rare that people are actually faced with a choice between "AGI in the US" versus "AGI in China". A more accurate but still flawed model of the choice people are sometimes faced with is "AGI in the US" versus "AGI in the US and in China", or even "AGI in the US, and in China 6-12 months later" versus "AGI in the US, and in China 3-6 months later".

9sammyboiz2y

Speaking to post-labor futures, I feel that CCP AGI would be more likely to redistribute resources in an equitable manner when compared to the US. Over the last 50 years or so, productivity growth in the US has translated to the ultra-wealthy growing in wealth while the wages for the working class has stagnated. Coupled with oligarchy growing in US, I don't expect the USG to have the interest of the people first and foremost. If USG has AGI, I expect that the trend of rising inequality will continue: billionaires will reap the benefits and the rest of people will be economically powerless... at best surviving on UBI. As for China, I think that less corporate interests and power-seeking pressures have plagued the CCP. I don't know much about Xi and his administration but I assume that they are less corrupt and more caring about their people. China has their capitalism under control and I believe that are more likely to create a fully automated luxury communism utopia rather than a hyper-capitalist hell. As for lacking American free-speech, I think equitable resource distribution is at least 100x more important. As long as the US stays staunchly capitalist, I fear they will not be able/willing to redistribute AGI abundance.

11Jackson Wagner2y

I think when it comes to the question of "who's more likely to use AGI build fully-automated luxury communism", there are actually a lot of competing considerations on both sides, and it's not nearly as clear as you make it out. Xi Jinping, the leader of the CCP, seems like kind of a mixed bag: * On the one hand, I agree with you that Xi does seem to be a true believer in some elements of the core socialist dream of equality, common dignity for everyone, and improved lives for ordinary people. Hence his "Common Prosperity" campaign to reduce inequality, anti-corruption drives, bragging (in an exaggerated but still-commendable way) about having eliminated extreme poverty, etc. Having a fundamentally humanist outlook and not being an obvious psychopath / destructive idiot / etc is of course very important, and always reflects well on people who meet that description. * On the other hand, as others have mentioned, the intense repression of Hong Kong, Tibet, and most of all Xinjiang, does not bode super well if we are thinking "who seems like a benevolent guy in which to entrust the future of human civilization". In terms of scale and intensity, the extent of the anti-Uyghur police state in Xinjiang seems beyond anything that the USA has done to their own citizens. * More broadly, China generally seems to have less respect for individual freedoms, and instead positions themselves as governing for the benefit of the majority. (Much harsher covid lockdowns are an example of this, as is their reduced freedom of speech, fewer regulations protecting the environment or private property, etc. Arguably benefits have included things like faster pace of development, fewer covid deaths, etc.) This effect could cut both ways -- respect for individual freedoms is pretty important, but governing for the benefit of the majority is by definition gonna benefit most ordinary people if you do it well. * Your comment kind of assumes that china = socialist and socialism = more

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Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?

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