I mean, the "total rate of high quality decisions per year" would obviously increase in the case where we redefine 1 year to be 10 revolutions around the sun and indeed the number of wars per year would also increase. GDP per capita per year would also increase accordingly. My claim is that the situation looks much more like just literally speeding up time (while a bunch of other stuff is also happening).
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But, I'm claiming that the rates of cognition will increase more like 1000x which seems like a pretty different story.
My question is: why will AI have the approximate effect of "speeding up calendar time"?
I speculated about three potential answers:
Because AIs will run at higher subjective speeds
Because AIs will accelerate economic growth.
Because AIs will speed up the rate at which high-quality decisions occur per unit of time
In case (1) the claim seems confused for two reasons.
First, I don't agree with the intuition that subjective cognitive speeds matter a lot compared to the rate at which high-quality decisions are made, in terms of "how quickly stuff like wars should be expected to happen". Intuitively, if an equally-populated society subjectively thought at 100x the rate we do, but each person in this society only makes a decision every 100 years (from our perspective), then you'd expect wars to happen less frequently per unit of time since there just isn't much decision-making going on during most time intervals, despite their very fast subjective speeds.
Second, there is a tradeoff between "thinking speed" and "thinking quality". There's no fundamental reason, as far as I can tell, that the tradeoff favors running minds at speeds way faster than human subjective times. Indeed, GPT-4 seems to run significantly subjectively slower in terms of tokens processed per second compared to GPT-3.5. And there seems to be a broad trend here towards something resembling human subjective speeds.
In cases (2) and (3), I pointed out that it seemed like the frequency of war did not increase in the past, despite the fact that these variables had accelerated. In other words, despite an accelerated rate of economic growth, and an increased rate of total decision-making in the world in the past, war did not seem to become much more frequent over time.
Overall, I'm just not sure what you'd identify as the causal mechanism that would make AIs speed up the rate of war, and each causal pathway that I can identify seems either confused to me, or refuted directly by the (admittedly highly tentative) evidence I presented.