I expect that behavior to disappear as AIs get better at modeling humans, and resisting will be costlier to their overall goals.
This seems distinct from an "anything could happen"-type prediction precisely because you expect the observed behavior (resisting shutdown) to go away at some point. And it seems you expect this behavior to stop because of the capabilities of the models, rather than from deliberate efforts to mitigate deception in AIs.
If instead you meant to make an "anything could happen"-type prediction—in the sense of saying that any individual observation of either resistance or non-resistance is loosely compatible with your theory—then this simply reads to me as a further attempt to make your model unfalsifiable. I'm not claiming you're doing this consciously, to be clear. But it is striking to me the degree to which you seem OK with advancing a theory that permits pretty much any observation, using (what looks to me like) superficial-yet-sophisticated-sounding logic to cover up the holes. [ETA: retracted in order to maintain a less hostile tone.]