Are you conditioning on the prior claims when stating your probabilities? Many of these properties are highly correlated. E.g., "seriously misaligned" and "broadly strategic about achieving long run goals in ways that lead to scheming" seem very correlated to me. (Your probabilites seem higher than I would have expected without any correlation, but I'm unsure.)

I think we probably disagree about the risk due to misalignment by like a factor of 2-4 or something. But probably more of the crux is in value on working on other problems.