A treacherous turn can result from a strategic decision to play nice and build strength while weak in order to strike later

LLMs are clearly not playing nice as part of a strategic decision to build strength while weak in order to strike later! Yet, Bostrom imagines that general AIs would do this, and uses it as part of his argument for why we might be lulled into a false sense of security.

This means that current evidence is quite different from what's portrayed in the story. I claim LLMs are (1) general AIs that (2) are doing what we actually want them to do, rather than pretending to be nice because they don't yet have a decisive strategic advantage. These facts are crucial, and make a big difference.

I am very familiar with these older arguments. I remember repeating them to people after reading Bostrom's book, years ago. What we are seeing with LLMs is clearly different than the picture presented in these arguments, in a way that critically affects the conclusion.