I think your questions are good ones, but very difficult to answer, especially in light of rampant denialism. The second question stands out to me, because (1) that will vary individually and (2) it depends on the facts. If covid is causing cumulative cognitive decline, I can see that resulting in a loop of increased infections due to brain damage and increased risk tolerance, which further damages the brain, resulting in higher risk of more infections. In such a case, I'm doubtful that self-isolation is a bigger problem, even though isolation has its own problems.
Makes sense! My current emerging policy is to keep going out, but to avoid being in closed rooms for less than high ev interactions. Plus prioritizing applying to remote over in-person jobs.
Given the large leaps with which AGI and various other existential risks come closer, being extremely covid cautious seems not indicated though. Gotta see the world while it still stands.
Thanks for the reply, I've been thinking on it. I'm curious - is there any evidence that might change your mind in the future? Or do the risks dominate?
Things I'm fairly confident in:
Things I'm confused about (and would appreciate input on):