367

LESSWRONG
LW

366
Personal Blog

4

Evidence for surprising ease of de-nuclearization

by [anonymous]
18th Dec 2010
1 min read
2

4

Personal Blog

4

Evidence for surprising ease of de-nuclearization
2NihilCredo
0gwern
New Comment
2 comments, sorted by
top scoring
Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 8:22 AM
[-]NihilCredo15y20

How does that suggest that de-nuclearisation is easier than previously believed? The conventional wisdom (according to Carpenter, but I would disagree) was that Britain and France's priority was not to lose nuclear supremacy in the EU, so while they would rather have disarmed they did not want to be the first to do so. The new cables imply that at least France independently wants to have a deterrent, and as a consequence also pushes for Britain to maintain theirs: this is a scenario where disarmament is significantly harder, not easier.

Furthermore, Yglesias' point that the UK and France being nuclear powers incites "tier 2" economic powers to acquire nukes as a status symbol seems reasonable to me. However, if our priority is avoiding a nuclear war, then Brazil and South Africa stockpiling nukes for status purposes is a much more remote concern than Asian countries stockpiling nukes so they can engage in mini-Cold Wars over Kashmir, Taiwan, or the 38th parallel. And for the latter group of countries, the overwhelming reason for nuclearisation is to counter or surpass their direct opponents' nuclear arsenals; British and French armaments don't really enter much into the picture.

Reply
[-]gwern15y00

In some states. What genuine need do Britain & France have for nukes? The EU is a pretty safe neighborhood. If they were stuck next to China and India and North Korea and Iran, it'd be vastly more impressive.

Also: go Wikileaks.

Reply
Moderation Log
More from CarlShulman
View more
Curated and popular this week
2Comments

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2010/12/the-symbolic-power-of-nuclear-deterrents/