If you want to explore the community more, I recommend reading the Library, checking recent Curated posts, seeing if there are any meetups in your area, and checking out the Getting Started section of the LessWrong FAQ.
The Open Thread sequence is here.
See that unbiased "prior-free" estimates must be mixtures of the (unbiased) estimates
I don't follow.
assembly of (higher-variance) estimates
What's an "assembly of estimates"?
treating the two as independent pieces of evidence
But they're distributions, not observations.
If you want to explore the community more, I recommend reading the Library, checking recent Curated posts, seeing if there are any meetups in your area, and checking out the Getting Started section of the LessWrong FAQ.
The Open Thread sequence is here.