I've written this interactive notebook in Foretold prediction platform. It is meant to be completely beginner friendly and takes about 2 hours to go through. I've used it as the basis for a workshop, and the accompanying slides can be found at the bottom of the notebook.
From the notebook:
In this interactive notebook, our goal is to actively try out forecasting and learn several basic tools. After this, you will be able to more easily use forecasts in your daily life and decision making, understand broadly how forecasters go about predicting stuff, and you should know if this is something you want to dive into deeper and how to go about that. We have 5 sections:
- We will start immediately with several examples.
- Then go on to understand how probabilities feel like, and how to be more calibrated.
- Work on the technique of outside view and inside view reasoning.
- Briefly discuss several interesting techniques - research, combining models and changing scope.
- Try out some actual forecasts from start to finish!