This is a special post for quick takes by DanielFilan. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
Rationality-related writings that are more comment-shaped than post-shaped. Please don't leave top-level comments here unless they're indistinguishable to me from something I would say here.
My bid for forecasters: come up with conditional prediction questions to forecast likely impacts of potential US policies towards Ukraine. See this thread where I brainstorm potential such questions.
Challenges as I see it: figuring out which policies are live options, operationalizing, and figuring out good success/failure metrics.
Benefits: potentially make policy more sane, or more realistically practice doing the sort of thing that might one day make policy more sane.
Rationality-related writings that are more comment-shaped than post-shaped. Please don't leave top-level comments here unless they're indistinguishable to me from something I would say here.