On January 20th, President Trump signed Executive Order 14169, pausing foreign aid for 90 days and launching a review of all assistance programs. This decision creates significant uncertainty for global health and development initiatives worldwide, many of which rely heavily on US funding.

Metaculus has launched the USAID Outlook to help provide more clarity on program survival, funding levels, and more, with questions like:

• Will the PEPFAR program end before 2026?

• Will the executive order be rescinded, blocked, or extended?
• What will US government funding be for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment?
• Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program end before 2026?

We hope you share your predictions on the full list of questions here and help contribute to greater clarity on the future of US foreign aid funding. Your input could make a real difference in understanding these critical developments that affect millions of lives worldwide.