I feel confused how this paper will interface with people who think that standard RLHF will basically work for aligning AI systems with human intent. I have a sense this will not be very compelling to them, for some reason, but I am not sure.
Context: I firmly hold a MIRI-style "alignment is extremely hard" view, but I am also unusually sympathetic to Quintin/Nora's arguments. So here's my outline of the model of that whole debate.
Layer 1: I think there is nonzero meat to the argument that developing deceptive circuits is a meaningfully difficult step, and that humans training them in from outside the system changes the setup in a way that invalidates its implications for strict deceptive alignment.
For the AI model to naturally develop deception, it'd need to have either:
In contrast, the paper here presents an already chiseled-in instance of deceptive alignment, which artificially routed around the actually-hard steps of developing robust "sleeper circuits" activating in response to specific stimuli.[2]
Layer 2: But while the argument has some meat, it doesn't have much of it. An LLM learning some unexpected trigger-action pattern happens all the time in the wild: hallucinations, mistakes that a human wouldn't make, exigencies of RLHF'd-in corporate sycophancy like "I think it's better to let people die than to say something racist", et cetera.
Goal misgeneralization of this format does occur in the wild. And indeed, that's one of the core reasons why we expect deceptive alignment in RLHF-style setups in the first place (#20 here): because the training dataset would be labeled in a systemically incorrect fashion, such that the most faithful and compact description of it (in goal format) is something omnicidal, not eudaimonic.
Layer 3: The counter³-argument from the optimists that I predict here is disagreeing that the errors in the dataset would produce systemic deceptive alignment, rather than something that could be basically approximated as "pro-social behavior plus noise".
I see nonzero meat on this one as well. In the paper, the sleeper circuits were specifically calculated by humans to be demonstratively scary: an AI model that waits until deployment-time, then "tears off the mask" and goes off to pursue its true nefarious desires. Those circuits produce a coherent misaligned behavior, with a clear point for the treacherous turn.
If this sort of behavior arose naturally, however? We can imagine there being much more flip-flopping. The AI would start out acting normal, then see some pattern that makes it nefarious and deceptive, then see something which makes it switch again and e. g. backtrack on its omnicidal plans or even self-report its bad thoughts to humans, et cetera. This would look more like the Waluigi Effect, rather than full-scale deceptive alignment. Which is a much more manageable threat.
In other words: there's some "slack" that the SGD leaves the model. That slack could be arranged into the shape of deceptive alignment. But unless there's someone external and intelligent acting on the system, that slack will likely just take on the shape of approximately-noise. (Optimization amplifies, but if there's no-one outside the system to amplify...)
Layer 4: Except the next issue is that the previous argument defended LLMs being safe by arguing that they'd be unable to coherently pursue goals across different contexts. Which means it argued they're not AGI, and that their whole training setup can't generalize to AGI.
That's the whole issue with the optimstic takes that I keep arguing about. Their "alignment guarantees" are also "incapability guarantees".
Inasmuch as AI models would start to become more AGI-like, those guarantees would start falling away. Which means that, much like the alignment-is-hard folks keep arguing, the AI would start straightening out these basically-noise incoherencies in its decisions. (Why? To, well, stop constantly flip-flopping and undermining itself. That certainly sounds like an instrumental goal that any agent would convergently develop, doesn't it?)
As it's doing so, it would give as much weight to the misgeneralized unintended-by-us "noise" behaviors as to the intended-by-us aligned behaviors. It would integrate them into its values. At that point, the fact that the unintended behaviors are noise-to-us rather than something meaningful-if-malign, would actually make the situation worse. We wouldn't be able to predict what goals it'd arrive at; what philosophy its godshatter would shake out to mean!
In conclusion: I don't even know. I think my Current AIs Provide Nearly No Data Relevant to AGI Alignment argument applies full-force here?
But none of these mechanisms strictly correspond to anything in the real AGI threat model.
And while both the paper and the counter-arguments to it provide some metaphor-like hints about the shape of the real threat, the locuses of both sides' disagreements lie precisely in the spaces in which they try to extrapolate each others' results in a strictly technical manner.
Basically, everyone is subtly speaking past each other. Except me, whose vision has a razor-sharp clarity to it.
Like, in the context of batch training: Imagine that there are some circuits that produce deceptiveness on some prompts X, and highly useful behaviors on other prompts Y. There are no nearby circuits that produce results as good on Y while not being deceptive on X. So while the SGD's backwards passes on X would try to remove these circuits, the backwards passes on Y would try to reinforce them, and the sum of these influences would approximately cancel out. So the circuits would stay.
Well, that's surely a gross oversimplification. But that's the core dynamic.
That said, I think the AI-control-is-easy folks actually were literally uttering the stronger claim of "all instances of deception will be trained out". See here:
If the AI is secretly planning to kill you, gradient descent will notice this and make it less likely to do that in the future, because the neural circuitry needed to make the secret murder plot can be dismantled and reconfigured into circuits that directly improve performance.
That sure sounds like goalpost-moving on their part. I don't believe it is, though. I do think they thought the quoted sentence was basically right, but only because at the time of writing, they'd failed to think in advance about some tricky edge cases that were permitted on their internal model, but which would make their claims-as-stated sound strictly embarrassingly false.
I hope they will have learned the lesson about how easily reality can Goodhart at their claims, and how hard it is to predict all ways this could happen and make their claims inassailably robust. Maybe that'll shed some light about the ways they may be misunderstanding their opponents' arguments, and why making up robust clearly-resolvable empirical predictions is so hard. :P
I'm not going to add a bunch of commentary here on top of what we've already put out, since we've put a lot of effort into the paper itself, and I'd mostly just recommend reading it directly, especially since there are a lot of subtle results that are not easy to summarize. I will say that I think this is some of the most important work I've ever done and I'm extremely excited for us to finally be able to share this. I'll also add that Anthropic is going to be doing more work like this going forward, and hiring people to work on these directions; I'll be putting out an announcement with more details about that soon.
EDIT: That announcement is now up!
Abstract:
Twitter thread: