Bayesiance (Filk)

by G Gordon Worley III1 min read18th Aug 2020No comments

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To the tune of "Elegance" from Hello Dolly!, with apologies to Jerry Herman

Yes, Less Wrong
It's really us
Bayesians and we're signing songs
Here to speak of priors, what they are
Bayes' Law, math, and the posterior

What a knack
There is to it
Acting like a rational agent
We are Bayesians
If you ain't a Bayesian
You will always risk a Dutch Book write off

All who are
Well-read agree
Thomas Bayes
Resplendently
Showed the way to conserve evidence
So you never need to lose one pence

Could we be
Misleading you?
Aumann begs to disagree with you
We are Bayesians
If you ain't a Bayesian
You will always risk a Dutch Book write off

[musical interlude]

Kelly bet?
We always do
Cromwell, yes?
We got tattoos
Some think only frequency should count
We know the unknown is paramount

Von Neumann
Bows down to us
Morgenstern he saves a place for us

[bridge]
We've are Bayesians
We were born with Bayesiance

Maybe we should be like Fisher
And demand more evidence

And we'll never make our minds up
Unless passing a t-test

But not every distribution
Rises to normality

So we need subjective inference
Which inevitably, means

[coda]
We are Bayesians
We got built in Bayesiance
And with Bayesiance...Bayesiance...
Bayesiance...Bayesiance...Bayesiance
We avoid write offs!

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