Since yesterday, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California has had a live audio feed of Musk v. Altman. The court is in session from 8:40 am to 1:40 pm Pacific time.
I think this lawsuit is a material risk to OpenAI. Mainstream media coverage does hardly any justice to the entertaining interactions nor the juicy revelations from live proceedings, and I recommend listening in if your time permits.
Polymarket and Kalshi odds of Elon winning the trial[1] have been mostly between 30% and 50% since the start of the live trial.
A range of outcomes (e.g. settlement, dismissal) are theoretically possible, and I think it's worth keeping in mind that Polymarket and Kalshi odds reflect the specific resolution criteria for each prediction market.