(Previously: Why will 2021 NOT bring a return to normalcy?)
I made a list of some prompts that seem broadly useful whenever sufficiently big news drops. It's on my mind right now because 3 days ago Sam Altman was fired by the OpenAI board. I don't think our answers to these prompts will be useful over the next week, but writing them down seems like the kind of thing that might be a good habit over the course of years. Hindsight bias can be very strong and deeply rooted, both individually and collectively.
I recommend writing your thoughts privately first, so that you have the space to Be Secretly Wrong if that turns out to be what you want. But speculating publicly also has its benefits. I think it's good to put your answers inside spoiler tags.
Here are the prompts:
(0. How much of my time and attention is this worth? On the margin, is it worthwhile to return my focus to something else?)
I didn't try very hard to generate this list, so I won't be surprised if better ones are offered in the comments--please contribute any good ones you think of. Finally, I claim that Being specific is useful and virtuous, but takes a lot of extra cognitive work. It's often less rewarding (both intrinsically and extrinsically) than exchanging quick takes.