During a discussion on one of the various LessWrong-aligned Telegram chat groups, I noticed how vague the "short" in "short timelines" is, and ran a poll to find out what people mean when they say "short timelines".
%
Range
Votes
0%
<3 months
0
0%
3–6 months
0
33%
6–12 months
8
33%
1–2 years
8
21%
2–4 years
5
8%
4–8 years
2
4%
Something more than 8 years
1
Total: 24 votes
Small n, certainly. But with this broad a distribution even on a time axis that doubles with each line, I think it shows we need to be precise about "how short is short" when discussing how likely we think a "short timeline" is.
It's potentially even worse than this: in the chat group, one respondent wasn't sure which answer to give because their idea of "short timelines" would be a different time bracket for "human level AGI available on the market" vs. "AI running 50+% of knowledge economy".
During a discussion on one of the various LessWrong-aligned Telegram chat groups, I noticed how vague the "short" in "short timelines" is, and ran a poll to find out what people mean when they say "short timelines".
Total: 24 votes
Small n, certainly. But with this broad a distribution even on a time axis that doubles with each line, I think it shows we need to be precise about "how short is short" when discussing how likely we think a "short timeline" is.
It's potentially even worse than this: in the chat group, one respondent wasn't sure which answer to give because their idea of "short timelines" would be a different time bracket for "human level AGI available on the market" vs. "AI running 50+% of knowledge economy".