Discussion article for the meetup : Cincinnati February: Predictions
We will meet at the Amol India on Ludlow street at 1400. This month's exercise is to try for calibration. Each of us should give a probability for each of the five events below occurring before April 1st; at the meetup we will discuss our reasoning and perhaps update. Then in April we'll see how we did, as a group and individually.
- Will Kim Jong-un cease to be dictator of Best Korea?
- Will the sentence of any of the seven scientists convicted of failing to adequately warn of the L'Aquila earthquake be modified?
- Will a large (more than 1000 soldiers) foreign force invade Iran?
- Will pope Bendict's resignation be revealed as for other than medical reasons?
- Will Eliezer update HPMOR a) Exactly once b) Exactly twice c) Three or more times?
If you like, you can substitute other questions, or suggest new ones, in the comments. Posting to PredictionBook is optional but encouraged.