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Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday)

by Jonas V, elifland, Sage Future
15th Jan 2025
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Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday)
16ryan_greenblatt
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7Jonas V
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[-]ryan_greenblatt10mo162

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[-]faul_sname10mo110

(and yes, I do in fact think it's plausible that the CTF benchmark saturates before the OpenAI board of directors signs off on bumping the cybersecurity scorecard item from low to medium)

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[-]Jonas V10mo70

My most recent forecasts:

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Until this Sunday, you can submit your 2025 AI predictions at ai2025.org. It’s a forecasting survey by AI Digest for the 2025 performance on various AI benchmarks, as well as revenue and public attention. 

You can share your results in a picture like this one. I personally found it pretty helpful to learn about the different benchmarks, and also to think through my timelines estimates. 

The survey will close on Sunday, January 19th (anywhere on Earth).

If you know any AI public intellectuals or discourse influencers who might be interested in submitting the survey, please encourage them to do so!

Survey link: ai2025.org