No current plans, and not sure if it should have music at all. But it's good to know we can reach out to you if that becomes important; appreciate you letting us know!
Some people downvoted / disagree-voted. I'm very curious what you disagree with!
Wasn't aware of that piece, thanks!
Yeah, good point. Edited the title to say "good taste in projects / priorities"
Some musings on what makes good taste in projects / priorities
(Copy-pasting and lightly editing an off-the-cuff Slack message that I originally wrote in the context of investments / trading)
- Some people have really good taste (in research, startups, career priorities, investment ideas, etc.). E.g. not chasing after current trends but instead building something truly novel. I've been trying to cultivate good taste and I think I'm decent at it, but others are substantially better than me.
- Examples of bad taste (most of these are examples that I consider my own mistakes): founding undifferentiated SaaS startups, shallow EA movement building programs, fundraising from poker pros (regcharity.org), buying BTC because it vaguely looks cheap (I did this in 2021), shorting overvalued meme stocks without a clear story for information advantage (my RGTI/QUBT put spread trades), or market-making in illiquid secondaries where you have an information disadvantage.
- Examples of good taste: founding Tesla, founding Cradle, investing in Anthropic Series A, Atlas Fellowship, AI 2027, the Covid short.
- Taste is by definition hard to grasp, but here are some prompts:
1) a year later, will this look like the genius move of the week/year? (will I feel great about how I spent that part of my life?)
2) if it succeeds, will I be proud to tell my peers about it, or will it look like dumb luck? if it fails, will I be proud to tell my peers about it (will it look like an excellent bet that didn't pan out)?
3) if someone told me they're doing this, would I think they're a genius or an idiot (accounting for the fact that genius ideas sometimes look dumb at first glance)?
4) does it build towards something big and exciting and revolutionary?
5) how would I feel telling someone really impressive/smart/successful about it? (e.g. [insert your intellectual heroes here])
Nitpick:
although some of these reviewers only saw bits of it.
Gary Marcus was shared the full draft including all the background research / forecast drafts. So it would be more accurate to say "only read bits of it".
Yeah, you will get much better fills if you walk your options limit orders (manually or automatically, see here for an example of an automatic implementation: https://www.schwab.com/content/how-to-place-walk-limit-order). Market makers will often fill your nearly-mid-market limit orders within seconds.
I own lots of SPY/SPX calls and agree with this perspective. I think QQQ calls also look pretty good (and have done great over the last year).
My most recent forecasts:
Under the status quo, it's pretty hard for private individuals to acquire significant shares in AGI companies; a key step towards realizing OGI would be to require AGI companies to be listed publicly.