The Sentinel minutes are a weekly newsletter looking at precursors of large-scale risks. Initially it was produced for our emergency response team, but it has since gained a wider readership. It might be of interest to LessWrong due to LW's interest on existential risks, although this is probably not the single greatest roundup on AI specifically.
Top items:
- Market uncertainty and political turmoil over Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China
- Increasing US-China tensions
- Anthropic’s Claude Code displays reward-hacking tendencies.
Forecaster Estimates
Taiwan has been a hot topic in the last week as China ramps up their military exercises. On the question of whether China would attempt to invade Taiwan by 2030, forecasters estimated a 43% chance of this occurring (range: 20% to 70%).
There has been significant speculation online over whether OpenAI has lost its edge. Our estimates on which AI company currently has the most capable general-purpose AI model internally are:
- P(OpenAI is in the lead) = 40%
- P(Google DeepMind is in the lead) = 20%
- P(Anthropic is in the lead) = 19%
- P(xAI is in the lead) = 10%
- P(Another AI company is in the lead) = 11%
Geopolitics
United States
The Courts
In the US, the Supreme Court ordered the Trump administration to pay foreign aid organizations for work that was already done. Forecasters think it’s unlikely Trump will straightforwardly ignore the Supreme Court at this point.
Over 100 lawsuits against Trump administration actions are currently in progress; it is likely that more cases will reach the Supreme Court.
A federal judge extended a block on the Trump administration's freeze of federal grants and loans. The judge said that the executive branch was attempting to usurp Congressional powers and that its funding freeze “undermines the distinct constitutional roles of each branch of our government.”
Tariffs and the Economy
The Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on Canadian energy; within two days, Trump paused tariffs on goods that fall under a previous agreement and vehicles. Tariffs on Chinese goods will also rise to 20%.
When the tariffs were initially announced, Canada, Mexico and China said that they would impose retaliatory tariffs. Canadian PM Trudeau is reportedly unwilling to lift any tariffs on US goods if Trump leaves any tariffs on Canadian goods.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve updated their first-quarter US GDP forecast to -2.4%. Some have pointed out this model might be too sensitive to non-monetary gold imports, but even accounting for this, growth looks weak.
The US reported job losses that were the largest for February since 2009.
The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is drafting plans to cut up to half its workforce. Commerce Secretary Lutnick has previously said that the Trump administration plans to abolish the IRS, end income taxes and replace the revenue using tariffs.
Domestic Politics and the Federal Government
The first cracks in Trump's relationship with Musk have started to appear. In a Cabinet meeting with Musk present, Trump told his secretaries that they are in charge of staffing and policy decisions for their departments, not Musk. Musk clashed with at least two Cabinet secretaries in the meeting.
Last week, the Trump administration cut about 5% of the workforce at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) and is planning to cut an additional 10%. Combined with staff buyouts, NOAA may lose a total of 20% of its workforce with the planned cuts. DOGE may also be planning to cancel building leases for two weather forecasting centers.
Trump administration policies are hurting US farmers, a key Republican constituency. The first Trump administration authorized a $28B bailout for farmers; an even larger bailout could soon be warranted. Farm bankruptcies will likely increase over the next several years.
Trump threatened to cut all federal funding for any school that allows "illegal protests."
Wired reports that business leaders are paying as much as $5M to meet privately with Trump at special events at Mar-a-Lago, or $1M to share a meal with him in a group.
Foreign Policy
Trump said that the US "needs" Greenland and that, "one way or the other, we're going to get it." Greenland's PM said, "We don't want to be Americans."
On January 31, US Secretary of Defense Hegseth warned Mexican military officials that the US would take unilateral military action if Mexico did not deal with collusion between the government and drug cartels.
Trump says that he won't defend NATO countries who don't pay what he considers to be enough for their own defense.
Trump is "confident" that China will not invade Taiwan during his term, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Trump has criticised the US-Japan security pact as "uneven".
Trump told Canadian PM Trudeau that he wanted to change the border with Canada. Trudeau later said, “What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us.”
Canada
Mark Carney was elected to be the leader of the Liberal Party. He is expected to be sworn in as PM early this week, replacing Trudeau, who will be stepping down.
Europe
Following a confrontational meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump halted all US military aid to Ukraine. A senior Ukrainian intelligence official estimated that Ukraine would run out of US military supplies within "two or three months."
The US also stopped sharing all intelligence with Ukraine. France continues to share its own independently gathered intelligence.
Trump suggested that he would place tariffs and additional sanctions on Russia after Ukraine was hit by an aerial bombardment, but also said later that "anybody would do" what Putin did and that Ukraine is "more difficult" to deal with than Russia.
Most Ukrainian forces in the Russian region of Kursk have almost been encircled.
US and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss how to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
UK PM Starmer announced that a group of European countries would provide military aid and security guarantees to Ukraine. He said that a "coalition of the willing" would defend Ukraine and keep the peace afterwards and that the UK intended to put "boots on the ground, and planes in the air." Canada is also willing to join the coalition. Australia has publicly said that it would be "open" to considering sending troops.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia would not accept any European proposal that would put peacekeepers from NATO countries in Ukraine. Members of the Trump administration have met with opposition leaders in Ukraine.
A spokesperson for Putin said in an interview for Russian state media that, "The new (U.S.) administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations," and that, "This largely coincides with our vision."
Some reports suggested that Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed interest in the country acquiring nuclear weapons and that all Polish men were to undergo military training. However, he seems to have primarily been referring to discussions with France about being part of their nuclear umbrella (mentioned last week), and the military training is not to be obligatory. Tusk did imply that in an ideal world, Poland would have its own nuclear weapons.
Germany's likely next chancellor, Merz, is working to remove limits on the country's defense spending. At the European level, von der Leyen aims to mobilize €800B to rearm Europe by finding €150B in cash and relaxing budget rules.
In Serbia, opposition lawmakers threw smoke bombs and used pepper spray in parliament, and one lawmaker suffered a stroke. Protests against government corruption and incompetence have been ongoing over the past four months.
According to The Economist, hard-right parties are now the most popular group of political parties in Europe.
US Marines are joining the effort to track suspected saboteurs in the Baltic Sea.
Middle East
Israel blocked aid deliveries into Gaza of food, medicine and shelter.
With the conclusion of the first stage of the hostages deal and in light of Hamas’s refusal to accept the Witkoff framework for the continuation of the talks, to which Israel has agreed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided that, as of this morning, the entry of all goods and supplies to the Gaza Strip will be halted.
Israel will not allow a ceasefire without a release of our hostages. If Hamas persists in its refusal, there will be additional consequences.
Islamic State was responsible for 1,805 deaths last year.
Trump revealed on Fox News that he wrote a letter to Iran’s leader asking to hold negotiations (summary on the NYT here).
The Syria conflict doesn’t seem to be over, as dozens have been killed in clashes between Syrian forces and Assad loyalists.
Africa
The Sudanese government claims that the UAE has provided significant military, financial, and political support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia. The UAE denies this, but allegations seem credible enough for the US to block arms sales to the UAE.
Evidence of torture was found in an RSF base, which had a detention center and a mass grave.
Asia
Trump and TSMC announced plans to invest $100B to build three new fabs and other facilities in the US. TSMC will keep its most advanced semiconductor technology in Taiwan.
Asked if the planned TSMC fabs could minimize the impact to the US with respect to chips if China were to isolate or take Taiwan, Trump said:
Could this minimize the impact on the US with chips should China decide to isolate Taiwan, or China decide to take Taiwan?
Well that's a very interesting point, it's a great question actually. But this would certainly... I can't say minimize, that would be a catastrophic event obviously, but it would at least give us a position where we had, in this very important business, we would have a very big part of it in the United States. So it would have a big impact if something should happen with Taiwan.
In a speech given in response to an increase in US tariffs, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson said, "If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end."
China's Ministry of National Defense Spokesperson warned Taiwan that, "we will come and get you, sooner or later." Chinese officials have stepped up rhetoric about Taiwan in other recent remarks as well, and political education for the Chinese military continues. PLA activity around Taiwan continues to increase relative to previous years.
China plans to launch an economic stimulus plan. The country's defense budget will also be increased by 7.2%, to 1.78 trillion yuan ($245.65 billion) in 2025. China also aims to complete modernization of its military by 2035.
A new rail route from China to Europe that bypasses Russia has opened. The route passes through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey to reach the EU, ending in Poland. Two additional rail routes that bypass Russia are also planned.
China to Poland trade route, avoiding Russia (approximate)
A coalition of rebel groups in Balochistan plans to form a “Baloch National Army.” This is an unwelcome development for Pakistan’s domestic stability, given that Pakistan is a nuclear power. It could also potentially end with the creation of another Bangladesh after a bloody conflict.
Pakistan arrested a terrorist responsible for a 2021 attack in Kabul. This is a signal of closer cooperation between Pakistan and the US, which might help Pakistan with its recent internal troubles.
Biorisk
An infant hospitalized for pneumonia in South Korea in 2022 was infected with a novel coronavirus.The child had a fever, respiratory symptoms, pneumonia, acute otitis media and liver function abnormalities; the child recovered. The virus was identified as part of a study of samples from infants admitted to one hospital in South Korea in 2022 with pneumonia symptoms. The researchers found similar viruses in wild Korean dormice and conjecture that the virus likely originated in rodents. Many more cases of zoonotic viral infections almost certainly happen regularly around the world and go undetected.
A boy in Uganda has died of Sudan virus infection, the second to die of Ebola virus disease in an outbreak that was declared on January 30 and was thought to be nearly under control. The boy’s mother and newborn sibling also died a few weeks earlier but had not been tested for the virus; they are considered probable cases. The outbreak now includes 12 confirmed cases and these two probable cases.
Scientists are concerned that Covid could cause a dramatic increase in the number of cases of dementia and other neurodegenerative conditions in coming years.
A total of 300K people have been vaccinated against mpox in Kinshasa, DRC.
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI executives have spoken with investors about 3 classes of agent launches for businesses, ranging from $2K/month to $20k/month, for tasks like automating coding and performing PhD-level research.
Anthropic’s Claude Code agent appears to display significant reward hacking tendencies:
it displays a strong tendency to try and get things to work at all costs. If the task is too hard, it'll autonomously decide to change the specs, implement something pointless, and claim success. When you point out this defeats the purpose, you get a groveling apology but it goes right back to tweaking the spec rather than ever asking for help or trying to be more methodical. O1-PRO does display that tendency too but can be browbeaten to follow the spec more often.
Reward hacking as a default behavior in proto-agents like Claude 3.7 is not a good signal for alignment of smart things. Either Anthropic rushed it or solving the problem is hard.
The US DOJ dropped its proposal to force Google to sell investments in AI companies such as Anthropic.
The UK dropped its antitrust probe into Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI.
The judge presiding over Elon Musk’s case against OpenAI refused a request for an injunction on OpenAI’s shift to a for-profit but did agree to fast-track the trial.
SoftBank is reportedly in talks to borrow $16 billion to invest in AI.
Ilya Sutskever’s SSI is being valued at $30B.
Inception Labs developed a diffusion-based LLM which seems to be much cheaper and faster than traditional LLMs, though their LLM doesn’t perform as well as the state of the art.
xAI bought another large property in Memphis, likely for another data center.
The US is considering banning DeepSeek’s app from government devices.
Anthropic quietly removed some Biden-era AI safety commitments from their website.
The commitments, which included pledges to share information on managing AI risks across industry and government and research on AI bias and discrimination, were deleted from Anthropic’s transparency hub last week, according to AI watchdog group The Midas Project. Other Biden-era commitments relating to reducing AI-generated image-based sexual abuse remain.
Anthropic co-founder and policy chief Jack Clark wrote in response on twitter:
This isn't a change in substance and has caused some confusion - we're working on a fix. We continue to follow the White House Voluntary Commitments.
The Future of Life Institute’s Anthony Aguirre published an essay that seeks to explain “how unchecked development of smarter-than-human, autonomous, general-purpose AI systems will almost inevitably lead to human replacement. But it doesn't have to.” The essay proposes four measures to prevent uncontrolled AGI and superintelligence from being built.
Aguirre wrote on twitter that humanity has about a year or two left to decide whether we’re going to replace ourselves with machines.
China’s ambassador to the US called for the US and China to cooperate on AI governance or risk “opening a Pandora’s box”.
The Information is reporting that Microsoft is developing AI reasoning models in-house, to compete with OpenAI, and may sell them to developers.
DOGE is reportedly using AI to guide its cost-cutting divisions. David Evan Harris said, “It’s just so complicated and difficult to rely on an AI system for something like this, and it runs a massive risk of violating people’s civil rights.”
Google announced it’ll feed its Gemini 2.0 model into its search engine. They also launched an experimental version of search that replaces the classic 10 blue links with an AI-generated summary. You can see their summary of AI news they announced in February here.
Google reported to Australian authorities that it received more than 250 complaints globally over less than a year that its AI models were used to make deepfake terrorism material.
A Chinese company, UBTech Robotics, successfully completed a test of the first collaborative team training of robots, in an electric vehicle factory.
Blackstone is planning a $13B data center in northern England.
The US is planning to use AI to revoke visas of students that it sees as Hamas supporters.
Researchers developed a neuromorphic exposure control system that they say revolutionizes machine vision under extreme lighting variations.
Miscellanea
An industrial radiography camera was stolen in North Carolina, US. This is the kind of thing that could be used to create a dirty bomb. In a worst-case scenario, the amount of material in the camera would not be expected to kill more than 100-1K people; the resulting chaos could cause substantial economic damage.