Myself, Kaj Sotala and Seán ÓhÉigeartaigh recently submitted a paper entitled "The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions and what they mean for the future" to the conference proceedings of the AGI12/AGI Impacts Winter Intelligenceconference. Sharp deadlines prevented us from following the ideal procedure of first presenting it here and getting feedback; instead, we'll present it here after the fact.
The prediction classification shemas can be found in the first case study.
What drives an AI?
- Classification: issues and metastatements, using philosophical arguments and expert judgement.
Steve Omohundro, in his paper on 'AI drives', presented arguments aiming to show that generic AI designs would develop 'drives' that would cause them to behave in specific and potentially dangerous ways, even if these drives were not programmed in initially (Omo08). One of his examples was a superintelligent chess computer that was programmed purely to perform well at chess, but that was nevertheless driven by that goal to self-improve, to replace its goal with a utility function, to defend this utility function, to protect itself, and ultimately to acquire more resources and power.
This is a metastatement: generic AI designs would have this unexpected and convergent behaviour. This relies on philosophical and mathematical arguments, and though the author has expertise in mathematics and machine learning, he has none directly in philosophy. It also makes implicit use of the outside view: utility maximising agents are grouped together into one category and similar types of behaviours are expected from all agents in this category.
In order to clarify and reveal assumptions, it helps to divide Omohundro's thesis into two claims. The weaker one is that a generic AI design could end up having these AI drives; the stronger one that it would very likely have them.
Omohundro's paper provides strong evidence for the weak claim. It demonstrates how an AI motivated only to achieve a particular goal, could nevertheless improve itself, become a utility maximising agent, reach out for resources and so on. Every step of the way, the AI becomes better at achieving its goal, so all these changes are consistent with its initial programming. This behaviour is very generic: only specifically tailored or unusual goals would safely preclude such drives.
The claim that AIs generically would have these drives needs more assumptions. There are no counterfactual resiliency tests for philosophical arguments, but something similar can be attempted: one can use humans as potential counterexamples to the thesis. It has been argued that AIs could have any motivation a human has (Arm,Bos13). Thus according to the thesis, it would seem that humans should be subject to the same drives and behaviours. This does not fit the evidence, however. Humans are certainly not expected utility maximisers (probably the closest would be financial traders who try to approximate expected money maximisers, but only in their professional work), they don't often try to improve their rationality (in fact some specifically avoid doing so (many examples of this are religious, such as the Puritan John Cotton who wrote 'the more learned and witty you bee, the more fit to act for Satan will you bee'(Hof62)), and some sacrifice cognitive ability to other pleasures (BBJ+03)), and many turn their backs on high-powered careers. Some humans do desire self-improvement (in the sense of the paper), and Omohundro cites this as evidence for his thesis. Some humans don't desire it, though, and this should be taken as contrary evidence (or as evidence that Omohundro's model of what constitutes self-improvement is overly narrow). Thus one hidden assumption of the model is:
- Generic superintelligent AIs would have different motivations to a significant subset of the human race, OR
- Generic humans raised to superintelligence would develop AI drives.
This position is potentially plausible, but no real evidence is presented for it in the paper.
A key assumption of Omohundro is that AIs will seek to re-express their goals in terms of a utility function. This is based on the Morgenstern-von Neumann expected utility theorem (vNM44). The theorem demonstrates that any decision process that cannot be expressed as expected utility maximising, will be exploitable by other agents or by the environments. Hence in certain circumstances, the agent will predictably lose assets, to no advantage to itself.
That theorem does not directly imply, however, that the AI will be driven to become an expected utility maximiser (to become ''rational''). First of all, as Omohundro himself points out, real agents can only be approximately rational: fully calculating the expected utility of every action is too computationally expensive in the real world. Bounded rationality (Sim55) is therefore the best that can be achieved, and the benefits of becoming rational can only be partially realised.
Secondly, there are disadvantages to becoming rational: these agents tend to be ''totalitarian'', ruthlessly squeezing out anything not explicitly in their utility function, sacrificing everything to the smallest increase in expected utility. An agent that didn't start off as utility-based could plausibly make the assessment that becoming so might be dangerous. It could stand to lose values irrevocably, in ways that it could not estimate at the time. This effect would become stronger as its future self continues to self-improve. Thus an agent could conclude that it is too dangerous to become ''rational'', especially if the agent's understanding of itself is limited.
Thirdly, the fact that an agent can be exploited in theory, doesn't mean that it will be much exploited in practice. Humans are relatively adept at not being exploited, despite not being rational agents. Though human 'partial rationality' is vulnerable to tricks such as extended warranties and marketing gimmicks, it generally doesn't end up losing money, again and again and again, through repeated blatant exploitation. The pressure to become fully rational would be weak for an AI similarly capable of ensuring it was exploitable for only small amounts. An expected utility maximiser would find such small avoidable loses intolerable; but there is no reason for a not-yet-rational agent to agree.
Finally, social pressure should be considered. The case for an AI becoming more rational is at its strongest in a competitive environment, where the theoretical exploitability is likely to actually be exploited. Conversely, there may be situations of social equilibriums, with different agents all agreeing to forgo rationality individually, in the interest of group cohesion (there are many scenarios where this could be plausible).
Thus another hidden assumption of the strong version of the thesis is:
- The advantages of becoming less-exploitable outweigh the possible disadvantages of becoming an expected utility maximiser (such as possible loss of value or social disagreements). The advantages are especially large when the potentially exploitable aspects of the agent are likely to be exploited, such as in a highly competitive environment.
Any sequence of decisions can be explained as maximising a (potentially very complicated or obscure) utility function. Thus in the abstract sense, saying that an agent is an expected utility maximiser is not informative. Yet there is a strong tendency to assume such agents will behave in certain ways (see for instance the previous comment on the totalitarian aspects of expected utility maximisation). This assumption is key to rest of the thesis. It is plausible that most agents will be 'driven' towards gaining extra power and resources, but this is only a problem if they do so dangerously (at the cost of human lives, for instance). Assuming that a realistic utility function based agent would do so is plausible but unproven.
In general, generic statements about utility function based agents are only true for agents with relatively simple goals. Since human morality is likely very complicated to encode in a computer, and since most putative AI goals are very simple, this is a relatively justified assumption but is an assumption nonetheless. So there are two more hidden assumptions:
- Realistic AI agents with utility functions will be in a category such that one can make meaningful, generic claims for (almost) all of them. This could arise, for instance, if their utility function is expected to be simpler that human morality.
- Realistic AI agents are likely not only to have the AI drives Omohundro mentioned, but to have them in a very strong way, being willing to sacrifice anything else to their goals. This could happen, for instance, if the AIs were utility function based with relatively simple utility functions.
This simple analysis suggests that a weak form of Omohundro's thesis is nearly certainly true: AI drives could emerge in generic AIs. The stronger thesis, claiming that the drives would be very likely to emerge, depends on some extra assumptions that need to be analysed.
But there is another way of interpreting Omohundro's work: it presents the generic behaviour of simplified artificial agents (similar to the way that supply and demand curves present the generic behaviour of simplified human agents). Thus even if the model is wrong, it can still be of great use for predicting AI behaviour: designers and philosophers could explain how and why particular AI designs would deviate from this simplified model, and thus analyse whether that AI is likely to be safer than that in the Omohundro model. Hence the model is likely to be of great use, even if it turns out to be an idealised simplification.
Dangerous AIs and the failure of counterexamples
Another thesis, quite similar to Omohundro's, is that generic AIs would behave dangerously, unless they were exceptionally well programmed. This point has been made repeatedly by Roman Yampolskiy, Eliezer Yudkowsky and Marvin Minsky, among others (Yam12, Yud08, Min84). That thesis divides in the same fashion as Omohundro's: a weaker claim that any AI could behave dangerously, and a stronger claim that it would likely do so. The same analysis applies as for the 'AI drives': the weak claim is solid, the stronger claim needs extra assumptions (but describes a useful 'simplified agent' model of AI behaviour).
There is another source of evidence for both these theses: the inability of critics to effectively dismiss them. There are many counter-proposals to the theses (some given in question and answer sessions at conferences) in which critics have presented ideas that would 'easily' dispose of the dangers; every time, the authors of the theses have been able to point out flaws in the counter-proposals. This demonstrated that the critics had not grappled with the fundamental issues at hand, or at least not sufficiently to weaken the theses.
This should obviously not be taken as a proof of the theses. But it does show that the arguments are currently difficult to counter. Informally this is a reverse expert-opinion test: if experts often find false counter-arguments, then then any given counter-argument is likely to be false (especially if it seems obvious and easy). Thus any counter-argument should have been subject to a degree of public scrutiny and analysis, before it can be accepted as genuinely undermining the theses. Until that time, both predictions seem solid enough that any AI designer would do well to keep them in mind in the course of their programming.
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