Is the "percent of everett branches" a literal question, or just a clever way of saying "prior probability at the moment of gunfire"? Taken literally, there's an infinitesimal fraction of branches that contain humans, a tiny fraction of those contain Trump, a trivial slice of THOSE have him in the public eye enough to get shot at, only a few of which have that event and that shooter present, etc...
It's a lot like saying "what're the chances that this week's lottery would be EXACTLY 11,23,44,46, 51, 60"? It depends on when you ask the question, ... (read more)
Not sure, but it seems to me that in the vast majority of Everett branches in which shots were fired at Trump, either they all missed or at least one of them scored a hit solid enough to kill or seriously injure Trump. The outcome that happened in our branch (graze his cheek & ear) is pretty unlikely. I don't think there are any implications of this, it's just interesting.
2avturchin
Chances of being injured in head but not brain damaged are rather small, I think less than 10 per cent. So in 90 per cent of branches where shots were fired in his head directions, he is seriously injured or dead.
However, climbing to roof without Secret Service reaction was also a very unlikely event. May be only 10 per cent chance of success.
Combining, I get 9 per cent of him being dead or seriously injured yesterday.