I’m surprised that many people acting as if the HF-OpenAI incident presents a risk to humanity in the near future (1-3 years), rather than something that will only have consequences long down the line (10-15 years). Right now even the worst case scenarios don’t represent a risk of extinction, unless you count in the “AI makes a supervirus” risk, which seems far fetched to me as of 2026.

All HF-OpenAI did was demonstrate that the LW/EY predictions were basically correct, but I don’t think anyone’s p(doom) or timelines should be updated as a result, because, well, we’ve all pretty much expected this to happen, so a good Bayesian wouldn’t update much on expected evidence.