It seems like you're thinking about some very important questions, but you'd have to be much more specific before I can give you any concrete suggestions.
How do you plan to determine what the intuitive medical decision making algorithm is? By consulting textbooks? Or surveying doctors?
I'd be happy to talk with you about this in more detail, either by e-mail (ahuitfeldt@mail.harvard.edu) or Skype.
Im researching rational medical decision making and trying to find right angles to approach the subject of probabilistic decision making in medicine.
My first paper will be about the probability updating after the medical tests when we know the prevalence of the patients possible disease and the tests sensitivity and specificity.
Second paper will be (at the moment) about the decision to test if we have certain treatment treshold and know the prevalence of the disease and the tests sensitivity and specifity.
So im reasearching how well the descriptive medical decision making (usually intuitive) matches the normative ideal when in the decision making situation we have all the available info to actually calculate the best action.
If you have some ideas regarding this topic I would love to hear them. Thanks a lot!