Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.

Today was Refine's third blogpost day. I find it hard to write blogposts. The voice of the inner critic is too loud. The voice of Adam Shimi too is powerful. I'm caught between a rock and a hard place.

so I wrote some shortforms:

Dutch Book Fundamentalism I:the bets we are willing to offer and take don't just constrain our beliefs - they are our beliefs

Two shortforms on Imprecise Probability (related to InfraBayesianism):

Imprecise Probability I: the Bid-Ask Spread measures AdversarialityI enumerate some examples where the bid-ask spread is a rational measure of adversarial action. Bid-ask spread is a fundamental notion of rational belief and action, not just an accidental feature of trading.

Speculations on the correct notion of Information FlowSome speculations on the correct definition of Information Flow. A major obstacle are collections of random variables XORed variables and higher-order dependencies. Shannon information theory does not deal well with these. I speculate on how and whether factored sets, cyclic causality and information cohomology might help.

Today was Refine's third blogpost day. I find it hard to write blogposts. The voice of the inner critic is too loud. The voice of Adam Shimi too is powerful. I'm caught between a rock and a hard place.

so I wrote some shortforms:

Dutch Book Fundamentalism I:

the bets we are willing to offer and take don't just constrain our beliefs - they are our beliefsTwo shortforms on Imprecise Probability (related to InfraBayesianism):

Imprecise Probability I: the Bid-Ask Spread measures Adversariality

I enumerate some examples where the bid-ask spread is a rational measure of adversarial action. Bid-ask spread is a fundamental notion of rational belief and action, not just an accidental feature of trading.Concept splintering in Imprecise Probability: Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty.

when we move from standard probability theory to imprecise probability theory concepts in the old probability theory 'splinter' into distinct 'aleatoric' and 'epistemic' concepts in the new imprecise probability theorySpeculations on the correct notion of Information Flow

Some speculations on the correct definition of Information Flow. A major obstacle are collections of random variables XORed variables and higher-order dependencies. Shannon information theory does not deal well with these. I speculate on how and whether factored sets, cyclic causality and information cohomology might help.