222

LESSWRONG
LW

221

AI Timelines and Points of no return — LessWrong

AIWorld Modeling

15

AI Timelines and Points of no return

by Gabriel Alfour

24th Oct 2025

1 min read

15

This is a linkpost for https://cognition.cafe/p/ai-timelines-and-points-of-no-return

AIWorld Modeling

15

AI Timelines and Points of no return

New Comment

1 comment, sorted by

Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 2:32 PM

...I would say that the Soft PNR has clearly already occurred?

More from Gabriel Alfour

Curated and popular this week

In this essay, I introduce two Points of No Return (PNR):

The Hard PNR. The moment where we have AI systems powerful and intelligent enough that they can prevent humanity from turning them off.
The Soft PNR. The moment where we have AI systems that we will not want to turn off. For instance, because they are too intertwined with the economy, military systems, geopolitics, or romantic relationships.

I believe the Soft PNR is underrated (especially in rationalist communities).

I also believe that it is roughly as irrecoverable as the Hard PNR, and that it is quite likely to come first.

Cheers!