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It's looking likely that the pandemic will de facto end on the Summer Solstice.
Biden promised vaccine availability for everyone on May 1st. May 1st plus two weeks to get appointments plus four weeks spacing between two doses of Moderna plus one week waiting for full effectiveness, is June 19. The astronomical solstice is June 20, which is a Sunday.
Things might not go to plan, if the May 1st vaccine-availability deadline is missed, or a vaccine-evading strain means we have to wait for a booster. No one's organizing the details yet, as far as I know. But with all those caveats aside:
My understanding was that the May 1st date was "Everyone's now allowed to sign up for an appointment, but you may be at the end of a long queue." How long after that do you think it will take to get a vaccine to everyone who wants one?
[anonymous]40
Currently, 2.4 million shots/day. Note that it's a situation where it's always going to be limited by the rate limiting step, and there are many bottlenecks, so using the 'current' data and extrapolating only a modest increase is the most conservative estimate.
210 million adults. Only 0.7 need to be vaccinated for the risk to plummet for everyone else. A quick bit of napkin math says we need 294 million doses to fully vaccinate everyone, and we are at 52 million now. (294-52) = 242million/2.4 = 100.8 more days.
This post is a container for my short-form writing. See this post for meta-level discussion about shortform.