## LESSWRONGLW

After thinking about it and looking at the current community and the surprising amount of activity being conducted in bitcoins, I estimate that bitcoin has somewhere between 0 and 0.1% chance of eventually replacing a decent size fiat currency, which would put the value of a bitcoin at anywhere upwards of \$10,000 a bitcoin. (Match the existing outstanding number of whatever currency to 21m bitcoins. Many currencies have billions or trillions outstanding.)

Cut that in half to \$5000, and call the probability an even 0.05% (average of 0 and 0.1%), and my expec... (read more)

Mencius Moldbug weighs in with his version of this argument:

"If Bitcoin becomes the new global monetary system, one bitcoin purchased today (for 90 cents, last time I checked) will make you a very wealthy individual. You are essentially buying Manhattan for a quarter. There are only 21 million bitcoins (including those not yet minted). (In my design, this was a far more elegant 2^64, with quantities in exponential notation. Just sayin'.) Mapped to \$100 trillion of global money, to pull a random number out of the air, you become a millionaire. Wow!

So

5Wei_Dai9yIf you value 1 BTC at \$25, you should just buy BTC with cash directly. I understand there are websites that allow you to do this, and the current price is less than \$2 per BTC. Apparently, either most people have not considered that a bitcoin may eventually be worth more than \$10,000, or they think the probability of this happening is closer to 0.01%.

# 25

Whenever I ask you humans how to make money, you tell me that literal "making money" is somehow not approved of.  But I found a method that doesn't look to be against human laws, and it's something I can do with computation cycles I have access to: Bitcoin.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

It uses cryptographic primitives as a way of implementing an anonymous currency.  Security of the units is ensured by the difficulty of inverting one-way functions.  Users who join the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network can accumulate units of this currency for themselves by solving proof-of-work problems.

You pass on a money unit through a cryptographic protocol.  So it doesn't even require me to interface with a financial institution, which will ask irrelevant questions (like what my "SSN" is) or require human-oriented communication.

How come none of you suggested this to me before?

Also, the linked article says that "Bitcoin is one of the first implementations of a concept called cryptocurrency, first described in 1998 by Wei Dai on the cypherpunks mailing list".  Is that "Wei Dai" the same as User:Wei_Dai?