I'm pretty worried
about how AI might change the world a lot very soon. In some of these
cases things go very wrong very quickly, in others things go very
right very quickly, but I'm increasingly (relative to
2024)
expecting a messy middle path where, whether we end up with a good or
bad outcome, things might get weird for a while. Our supply chains
are fragile, fulfilment is largely just-in-time, and if we'll suddenly
need way more of some things they might not be available. Thinking a
lot about biosecurity for my day job, I'm especially worried about how
people, AIs, or some combination might release something to spread
through the population.
What can we do about this? A few months ago Chris Bakerlee (program
officer on Coefficient Giving's biosecurity
and pandemic preparedness team) wrote up 10
big projects for reducing bio x-risk. Working on any of these
professionally would be really valuable. Looking over the list,
however, it occurred
to me that most of them have solid actions we can do at the
individual level.
Several of these have the form "X is important, figure out how to get
countries to have X in an emergency", and since you likely care about
your own welfare much more than that of strangers, they're typically
worth just going and doing. Not on altruistic grounds, but they're
competitive with other ways to spend your money to improve your
own life in expectation. And this is the opposite of hoarding during
a disaster: buying in advance stimulates pre-disaster production while
also reducing disaster-time pressure.
Walking through the list:
"Boost countries' food stockpiles by >25%, especially
countries with high industrial capacity": store food. If you
have some space and like to cook, maintaining a deep pantry with three
months of food foregoes ~$9/year/person in investment returns.
"Ensure PPE stockpiles and emergency distribution systems are
in place in X country" and "Develop rigorously tested DIY protocols
for making respirators out of common household materials": buy reusable
masks for everyone in your household. About $30/person, and no
need to improvise when you can buy something good.
"Create and use demos to communicate AI-bio uplift to
policymakers": call your representatives to let them know you're
worried about risks from AI including bio uplift.
"Develop rigorously tested DIY protocols for converting
bedrooms into cleanrooms": buy air purifiers ($165)
and maybe far-UVC lamps ($500).
If you're buying in advance you don't have to figure out how to
improvise air cleaners out of fans, filters, tape, blankets, vacuum
cleaners; just buy the stuff we know works. Though there's still more
to do here, once good protocols are available.
"Scalably monitor particle concentrations inside clean spaces
and respirators": buy a particle
counter ($70). You can use it to measurehow wellyourair
purifiersare working
in your specific space. Now, it won't help with testing respirators (at
least not without way too much
work), but I'm pessimistic about anyone solving that problem
generally.
"Raise awareness of engineered pandemic risks, especially among
people who can do something about it" and "Headhunt the leads for
these and many other projects": write blog
posts, talk to your friends.
"Ensure strong, sensible mirror life policy is effective in X
country": confirm that none of your housemates are attempting to
create
mirror life.
"Ensure systematic red-teaming of gene synthesis and AIxBio
safeguards": I've got nothing here.
I also think it would be good for someone to spend some time thinking
about how to give good advice on bio-informed prepping. So much of
the prepping advice out there doesn't consider disasters involving
anything infectious. I've done some thinking in my spare time, but
none of this is close to the best you can do. It would be great to
have a list of "buy / do this" in prioritized order, with detailed
reasoning available for people who want to check the work, and people
could start at the top and work their way down.
I'm pretty worried about how AI might change the world a lot very soon. In some of these cases things go very wrong very quickly, in others things go very right very quickly, but I'm increasingly (relative to 2024) expecting a messy middle path where, whether we end up with a good or bad outcome, things might get weird for a while. Our supply chains are fragile, fulfilment is largely just-in-time, and if we'll suddenly need way more of some things they might not be available. Thinking a lot about biosecurity for my day job, I'm especially worried about how people, AIs, or some combination might release something to spread through the population.
What can we do about this? A few months ago Chris Bakerlee (program officer on Coefficient Giving's biosecurity and pandemic preparedness team) wrote up 10 big projects for reducing bio x-risk. Working on any of these professionally would be really valuable. Looking over the list, however, it occurred to me that most of them have solid actions we can do at the individual level.
Several of these have the form "X is important, figure out how to get countries to have X in an emergency", and since you likely care about your own welfare much more than that of strangers, they're typically worth just going and doing. Not on altruistic grounds, but they're competitive with other ways to spend your money to improve your own life in expectation. And this is the opposite of hoarding during a disaster: buying in advance stimulates pre-disaster production while also reducing disaster-time pressure.
Walking through the list:
"Boost countries' food stockpiles by >25%, especially countries with high industrial capacity": store food. If you have some space and like to cook, maintaining a deep pantry with three months of food foregoes ~$9/year/person in investment returns.
"Ensure PPE stockpiles and emergency distribution systems are in place in X country" and "Develop rigorously tested DIY protocols for making respirators out of common household materials": buy reusable masks for everyone in your household. About $30/person, and no need to improvise when you can buy something good.
"Create and use demos to communicate AI-bio uplift to policymakers": call your representatives to let them know you're worried about risks from AI including bio uplift.
"Develop rigorously tested DIY protocols for converting bedrooms into cleanrooms": buy air purifiers ($165) and maybe far-UVC lamps ($500). If you're buying in advance you don't have to figure out how to improvise air cleaners out of fans, filters, tape, blankets, vacuum cleaners; just buy the stuff we know works. Though there's still more to do here, once good protocols are available.
"Scalably monitor particle concentrations inside clean spaces and respirators": buy a particle counter ($70). You can use it to measure how well your air purifiers are working in your specific space. Now, it won't help with testing respirators (at least not without way too much work), but I'm pessimistic about anyone solving that problem generally.
"Raise awareness of engineered pandemic risks, especially among people who can do something about it" and "Headhunt the leads for these and many other projects": write blog posts, talk to your friends.
"Ensure strong, sensible mirror life policy is effective in X country": confirm that none of your housemates are attempting to create mirror life.
"Ensure systematic red-teaming of gene synthesis and AIxBio safeguards": I've got nothing here.
I also think it would be good for someone to spend some time thinking about how to give good advice on bio-informed prepping. So much of the prepping advice out there doesn't consider disasters involving anything infectious. I've done some thinking in my spare time, but none of this is close to the best you can do. It would be great to have a list of "buy / do this" in prioritized order, with detailed reasoning available for people who want to check the work, and people could start at the top and work their way down.
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