Two questions in one! I suggest responding to both, with whatever attention you'll lend them, though they are ostensibly unrelated.
My take
One could argue that a hypothetical, crucially unobservable/undetectable, extra-dimensional interloper could be 'manipulating' events. However, I would like to suggest that the boundaries of a [stable?/percieved?] reality possibly shape the execution of that act. The isolated-impactor meets friction, as a river meets its banks (an appealing aphorism to take with an appropriate portion of salt.)
One could mention that a consciousness, in alleged isolation, is condemned to the acts of perception and/or rationalization. I would say the question then becomes whether that generated opinion impacts behavior. The question of whether that behavior has an observable cause to an outside perceiver is also a critical question. After all, does reality lie only in one's perception, or beyond it?
So, now back to the interloper: what if one's perception of reality was 100% accurate? Well, I'd gather that one's understanding of themselves would also be 100% accurate, and it would be necessarily defined in the terms of every individual actor (as in external agent, or the collective "other" that sits on the opposite side of what we define as ourselves). In that case, the interloper would be at least a complete simulation of reality, and an agent within it on top of that... a frightful thought for a brain that can only approach reality, like some unforgiving asymptote.
But that's what's critical: reality is so unforgiving that the friction pushes us toward the line. We start defining each other as interconnected systems, and developing predictive models to shape our interactions with the world around us.
So, my final question would be "whose reality," followed by "mine, the object's, or something in between?"
Does a rock impact itself? Is a rock aware of that? What about a thermostat, or a lookup table? Can a lookup table reference the process itself?
My take
I have a few theories:
Here is the repo, if you're interested enough to take a look; and, here is the traffic data
Thank you for the opportunity to connect and learn!