18

LESSWRONG
LW

17
HypotheticalsList of LinksSingularity
Frontpage

7

[ Question ]

List of concrete hypotheticals for AI takeover?

by Yitz
7th Apr 2022
1 min read
A
3
5

7

7

List of concrete hypotheticals for AI takeover?
8Daniel Kokotajlo
7Joseph Miller
7Dagon
1Yitz
1Joseph Miller
New Answer
New Comment

3 Answers sorted by
top scoring

Daniel Kokotajlo

Apr 07, 2022

80

AI Impacts has been building a collection somewhat like this:

https://aiimpacts.org/partially-plausible-fictional-ai-futures/?fbclid=IwAR3n_Jl2IEVh9FlJQwyqdefp2ieZF4w0PGOfsluNN1cSX5khhsq1CigxSLw

Add Comment

Joseph Miller

Apr 07, 2022

70

Gwern recently had a popular post that was exactly that kind of thing: https://www.gwern.net/Clippy

Add Comment

Dagon

Apr 07, 2022

70

Amusingly, I was writing https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BkHRpF2cafyaoWxaT/believable-near-term-ai-disaster at the same time as you were posting the question, based on an earlier brainstorming exploration at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTbGuLTnycA6wKBza/ .

Add Comment
[-]Yitz3y10

Funny, I think we're both coming from similar sources of inspiration :)

Reply
1 comment, sorted by
top scoring
Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 10:11 AM
[-]Joseph Miller3y10

All the stories I've read, even Gwern's recent one feel surprisingly abstract. To me the obvious, very concrete story for an intelligence explosion looks like this:

  1. Run a program that does the following:
    while true:
    1. Run Codex on its own source with the prompt: "Improve the performance and efficiency of this coding model"
    2. Train a new version of Codex using the modified source code.
    3. Run tests and benchmarks to check it is actually better. If so, update your local version of Codex
  2. Wait until it is amazing / you are dead

Obviously Codex isn't nearly good enough to do this and you would need the benchmarks to include very difficult tasks, so that as it starts to take off it still has room for improvement. But I don't see why it would require a different kind of model.

Reply
Moderation Log
More from Yitz
View more
Curated and popular this week
A
3
1
HypotheticalsList of LinksSingularity
Frontpage

I was wondering if anyone’s compiled a list of posts which give a concrete description (with scenario-specific details) of a hypothetical future where humanity suffers an X or S scale disaster due to AGI takeover. If such a list does not already exist (or does exist but needs to be updated), please put links to specific posts of this kind in the comments!