The statements "LLMs are a normal technology" and "Advanced AI is a normal technology" are completely different. If you think LLMs are not very advanced, it is perfectly valid to believe both that LLMs are a normal technology and that advanced AI is not.

The union bound states that $P\left({\bigcup }_{i=1}^n{A}_i\right)\le {\sum }_{i=1}^{n}P\left(A_i\right)$ for any events $A_1,\dots ,A_n$. In practice, this is an enormously useful property. I think one reason it's so useful is that for rare events, it gives you essentially the same answer you'd get if the events were independent, but without proving anything about their dependence structure. To be precise, suppose $A_1,\dots ,A_n$ are independent and all have probability $p$. Then, $P\left({\bigcup }_{i=1}^n{A}_i\right)=1-(1-p{)}^n$ and ${\sum }_{i=1}^{n}P\left(A_i\right)=np$. Now note that  $1-(1-p{)}^n\in \Theta (np)$ when $np$ is small, so the union bound gives you asymptotically the same bound as assuming the events are independent.

I've found a lighting solution that gets you 24000 lumens, requires no installation, can be placed anywhere with an outlet, and looks tolerable. It uses a temporary sale though.

Just combine this sale of 2x 12000 lumen lightbulbs for $30:

 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0D7VKXF4R

with 2x of these floor stands for 35$:

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mainstays-71-Black-Floor-Lamp-Modern-Design/12173437 

Hopefully others find this useful.