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Interesting predictions on manifold.markets — LessWrong

Prediction MarketsWorld Modeling

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[ Question ]

Interesting predictions on manifold.markets

by jmh

1st Oct 2022

1 min read

6

Prediction MarketsWorld Modeling

6

Interesting predictions on manifold.markets

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I suspect you shouldn't attribute much precision to Manifold, especially for things under 10% or so (or over 90%, same thing). Play-money and thinly traded questions make for a pretty weak consensus.

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I noticed two separate predictions on manifold.markets related to Xi and Xi & Putin remaining at the top of their governments.

Xi and Putin at 93% and Xi at 95%.

What's interesting, and I wonder if it makes sense, is that together these suggest people think Putin is more secure in his future than Xi.

Curious about other's take on this.