Interesting predictions on manifold.markets

I suspect you shouldn't attribute much precision to Manifold, especially for things under 10% or so (or over 90%, same thing). Play-money and thinly traded questions make for a pretty weak consensus.

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Interesting predictions on manifold.markets

by jmh

1st Oct 2022

1 min read

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Prediction MarketsWorld Modeling

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Interesting predictions on manifold.markets

6Dagon

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[-]Dagon3y68

I suspect you shouldn't attribute much precision to Manifold, especially for things under 10% or so (or over 90%, same thing). Play-money and thinly traded questions make for a pretty weak consensus.

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