Are there any public cost-effectiveness analyses of different AI Safety charities? For instance, I'm aware of Larks' AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison, but he didn't include any concrete impact measures and stopped doing it in 2021.
I'm looking for things like "donating $10M to this org would reduce extinction risk from AI by 2035 by 0.01-0.1%" or even "donating $10M to this org would result in X-Y QALYs".
(I understand there are many uncertain variables here that could affect results quite a lot, but I think that some quantitative estimates, even quite rough, would be quite useful for donors).
Ideally would also include comparison to the most cost-effective charities listed by GiveWell, though I understand this would imply comparing things with very different error bars.