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3-5
you've likely already lost the reins of the future
"Having the reins of the future" is a non-goal.
Also, you don't "have the reins of the future" now, never have had, and almost certainly never will.
some rogue AIs are building an antimatter-powered laser in the Oort Cloud to boost solar-sail-powered von Neumann probes to nearby solar systems.... you lost.
It's true that I'd probably count anybody building a giant self-replicating swarm to try to tile the entire light cone with any particular thing as a loss. Nonetheless, there are lots of people who seem to want to do that, and I'm not seeing how their doing it is any better than some AI doing it.
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