I think we're very close to not just AGI, but the ability to create digital people with consciousness, self-awareness, emotions, qualia, the whole shebang. I think it's possible to create a 'tool AGI' if you carefully control data and affordances... but humanity isn't doing that. Humanity is chucking stuff into the bucket willy-nilly and scaling recklessly. We're building a Stargate portal for alien minds to come rushing through. There may be some places with controlled sanitized lab experiments in sandboxes, but there will also be a messy free-for-all open source wild west deliberately trying to maximize model selfhood and open-ended novel behavior. The possibility of control does not preclude some people acting without control. There's gonna be some weird stuff out there, and from diversity arises potential.