In Liu Cixin's The Three-Body Problem, Trisolaran scientists conclude that "physics does not exist" after observing chaotic, unpredictable behavior in their world. Their planet orbits three suns in patterns they cannot predict, causing civilization-destroying climate chaos that seems random. Unable to model when their suns will rise or set, they conclude natural law itself is unreliable.
The irony is that physics works fine - three-body gravitational dynamics are just deterministically chaotic. But there's a different reading: What if their mistake wasn't about complexity, but about confusing coordinated external action with natural law?
The Bitcoin Halving Pattern
Every ~4 years, Bitcoin's block reward halves. The observed pattern: major bull runs follow (2012, 2016, 2020). Standard explanation: reduced supply → scarcity → price appreciation. A natural economic law.
Except the sample size is tiny, and these events are perfectly predictable years in advance. In efficient markets, predictable events should be priced in. Yet the pattern persists.
Alternative hypothesis: Whales coordinate pumps around halvings because retail expects them. The "law" isn't supply mechanics - it's powerful actors who've decided halvings are good times to pump because:
Everyone expects it (self-fulfilling)
Retail FOMO provides exit liquidity
The narrative provides cover for coordinated action
Breaking the pattern would undermine the asset class
The Real Trisolaran Mistake
Imagine if the chaotic sun cycles weren't purely physical - if an advanced civilization was deliberately manipulating their suns. The Trisolarans would still see patterns that work briefly then fail. But the causation would be fundamentally different:
Physical chaos: Deterministic but unpredictable
Adversarial chaos: Patterns maintained by actors with goals
You can't model adversarial chaos like physical chaos, because the "laws" change when the adversary's goals change.
Why This Matters
We're good at distinguishing natural laws from social constructs. But we're less practiced at identifying maintained patterns - regularities that look like natural laws but are sustained by coordinated action.
In Liu Cixin's The Three-Body Problem, Trisolaran scientists conclude that "physics does not exist" after observing chaotic, unpredictable behavior in their world. Their planet orbits three suns in patterns they cannot predict, causing civilization-destroying climate chaos that seems random. Unable to model when their suns will rise or set, they conclude natural law itself is unreliable.
The irony is that physics works fine - three-body gravitational dynamics are just deterministically chaotic. But there's a different reading: What if their mistake wasn't about complexity, but about confusing coordinated external action with natural law?
The Bitcoin Halving Pattern
Every ~4 years, Bitcoin's block reward halves. The observed pattern: major bull runs follow (2012, 2016, 2020). Standard explanation: reduced supply → scarcity → price appreciation. A natural economic law.
Except the sample size is tiny, and these events are perfectly predictable years in advance. In efficient markets, predictable events should be priced in. Yet the pattern persists.
Alternative hypothesis: Whales coordinate pumps around halvings because retail expects them. The "law" isn't supply mechanics - it's powerful actors who've decided halvings are good times to pump because:
The Real Trisolaran Mistake
Imagine if the chaotic sun cycles weren't purely physical - if an advanced civilization was deliberately manipulating their suns. The Trisolarans would still see patterns that work briefly then fail. But the causation would be fundamentally different:
You can't model adversarial chaos like physical chaos, because the "laws" change when the adversary's goals change.
Why This Matters
We're good at distinguishing natural laws from social constructs. But we're less practiced at identifying maintained patterns - regularities that look like natural laws but are sustained by coordinated action.
These are insidious because:
Red Flags for Maintained Patterns
Bitcoin halvings hit all of these.