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Debugging Despair ~> A bet about Satisfaction and Values

by P. João
31st Oct 2025
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I’ve tried to publish this in several ways, and each time my karma drops. Maybe that’s part of the experiment: observing what happens when I keep doing what feels most dignified, even when its expected value is negative. Maybe someday I’ll understand the real problem behind these ideas.

“Die With Dignity” hypothesis

Yudkowsky admitted defeat to AI and announced his mission to “die with dignity.”
 I ask myself:
 – Why do we need a 0% probability of living to “die with dignity”?
I don’t even need an “apocalyptic AI” to feel despair. I have felt it for much of my life. Rebuilding my self being is expensive, but.

Even when probabilities are low, act as if your actions matter in terms of expected value. Because even when you lose, you can be aligned. (MacAskill) 

That is why I look for ways to debug, to understand my despair and its relation to my values and satisfaction. How do some people manage to keep satisfaction (dignity, pride?) even in situations of death?

Posible thoughts of Leonidas in 300 :
 “I can go have a little fuck… or I can fight with 10,000 soldiers.”
 “Will I win?”
 “Probably not.”
 “Then I’ll die with the maximum satisfaction I can muster.”

 


 Dignity ≈ Satisfaction × Values / Despair?

(C1) Despair ~> gap between signal and valaues

 When I try to map my despair I discover a concrete pattern: it is not that I stop feeling satisfaction entirely; it is that I stop perceiving the satisfaction of a value: adaptability.
 Satisfaction provides signal; values provide direction. When the signal no longer points to a meaningful direction, the result is a loss of sense.

(C2) A satisfying experience ~> the compass my brain chases

There was a moment when something gave me real satisfaction; my brain recorded it and turned it into a target. The positive experience produced a prediction and, with it, future seeking.

(C3) Repeat without measuring ~> ritualized seeking

 If I repeat an action without checking whether it generates progress (if I don’t measure evolution) the seeking becomes ritual and the reward turns into noise. I often fool myself with a feeling of progress; for a while now I’ve been looking for more precise ways to measure or estimate that progress.

(C4) Motivation without direction ~> anxiety or despair

 A lot of dopamine without a current value signal becomes compulsive: anxiety, addiction, or despair. The system is designed to move toward confirmed rewards; without useful feedback it persists in search mode and the emptiness grows.

(C5) Coherence with values ~> robust satisfaction

 Acting aligned with my values — even when probabilities are adverse — tends to produce longer-lasting satisfaction. Coherence reduces retrospective regret: at least you lose having acted according to your personal utility function. Something like:


 Dignity ≈ Satisfaction × Values / Despair

 

(C6) Debugging hard, requires measurement: hypothesis → data → intervention → re-test

I’ve spent years with an internal notebook: not a diary, but notes of moments that felt like “this was worth existing for.”
To make those notes actionable, I built a process inspired by Bayesian calibration and information/thermodynamic efficiency:

  1. Establish a hierarchy of values with functions in relation to their estimated contribution to increasing entropy in the universe (or decresing local order/complexity).
  2. Compare peak moments of life with those values to find which align most strongly.
  3. Estimate satisfaction of each moment by relative comparison — which felt more satisfaction?
  4. Compare satisfaction to cost, generating a ratio (satisfaction/cost) that normalizes emotional intensity by effort or sacrifice.
  5. Set goals using these relationships and hierarchies: higher goals align with higher-value, higher-efficiency domains.
  6. Define tasks accordingly, mapping each to its associated value function and expected cost.
  7. Score each task by predicted satisfaction and cost, updating after action (Bayesian reweighting).

     

Quantitatively, this reduced the noise in my background; my monthly despair thoughts dropped considerably.
 I see people are afraid of AI-driven despair, but avoiding it in myself is not an easy task, and perhaps many should already be working on it, searching for ways to align values with satisfaction.